My “NFL Underdogs” column has enjoyed a great run.
I finished the regular season 31-21-2 ATS (59.6%) with my weekly pup picks and bolstered those returns with a 4-1 ATS mark in the playoffs so far.
That brings us to my Super Bowl LX picks…
Underdogs have covered in five straight Super Bowls and own a 17-6 ATS mark going back to Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002 (with SBXLIX closing as a pick'em).
Sizing up the SBLX spread, however, I’m not convinced the New England Patriots will cover as underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks. In fact, my first bet of the Big Game was the Seattle moneyline.
Opting for the outright odds instead of laying the points with the Seahawks is a conscious choice, though. This current spread falls in the dreaded 4.5-point range, where favorites win but can’t seem to cover.
For the sake of the column, I’ll give you some reasons to back the points with the Patriots, as well as some plus-money Super Bowl prop picks – all inspired by the best thing to come out of San Francisco.
Of course, I’m talking about Journey.
Good luck on Super Sunday, and thank you for following another year of “NFL Underdogs”.
NFL Super Bowl LX predictions and picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots +4.5 |
-105 |
 Jake Bobo Over 0.5 receiving yards |
+148 |
| Team With Most Sacks: New England |
+170 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown |
+160 |
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (+4.5)
Best bet: Patriots +4.5
(-105 at DraftKings)
Just a reminder, I bet the Seattle Seahawks moneyline. I’m not personally taking the New England Patriots +4.5, and there’s a reason for passing on the point spread altogether.
Could the Patriots keep this closer than oddsmakers’ expectations and still lose on Super Sunday? Yep. Underdogs of +4.5 do it regularly. Super Bowl underdogs, on the other hand, have only done it nine times.
But like Steve Perry sang (along with every karaoke bar on the planet), “Don’t Stop Believing”.
Since 2015 (when four became more of a key number due to PAT distance being moved back), 4.5-point underdogs win just 34% of games, which is pretty much the standard win rate for all dogs over those 11 seasons.
However, underdogs of +4.5 cover the spread at a 55.6% clip (50-40 ATS) since 2015, including 6-3 ATS in the postseason. And this year, 4.5-point pups are 9-2 ATS but just 5-6 SU.
As for how New England can “hold on to that feeling,” I did an in-depth breakdown on three reasons why the Patriots can win Super Bowl LX earlier this week. Here’s the Cliff Notes version:
• Drake Maye is the most mobile QB Seattle has faced since getting torched by Jayden Daniels’ legs in Week 9. And even less-than-spry QBs have run for respectable yards against the Seahawks in recent games.
• The Patriots’ run stop is back, baby. Injuries up front defanged this defense down the stretch, but with Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga healthy, New England has allowed just 214 total rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry in three playoff games.
• Chaos. Mike Vrabel has this pass rush raging at the right time. Since Week 15, New England has 20 sacks spawned from disguised pressure from a blitz-happy defense. That’s helped generate 13 takeaways over the last seven contests, including eight in the postseason.
Jake Bobo Over 0.5 Receiving Yards
Best bet: Over 0.5 Yards
(+148 at FanDuel)
Hat tip to my partner on the “Sharp 600” podcast, Todd Fuhrman, for this gem. Here’s to hoping we can get just one yard from Jake Bobo's “Open Arms” in Super Bowl LX.
Bobo caught two balls in the regular season, but in two postseason outings, the 6-foot-4 receiver has been targeted three times for two catches, one of which was a 17-yard touchdown in the NFC Championship Game.
Bobo, utilized more for his run blocking, is a sneaky option in Klint Kubiak’s play-action schemes and has shown good hands and solid route running in his limited usage.
Team With Most Sacks: New England
Best bet: New England
(+170 at DraftKings)
Maye has been sacked 15 times in the playoffs and faces a rabid Seahawks pass rush that ranked among the most lethal QB killers this season. That has Seattle set as a beefy -220 favorite to record the most sacks on Super Bowl Sunday.
Despite those odds, I see New England’s defense doing its share of “Lovin', Touchin', Squeezin'” on Sam Darnold. Well, maybe not so much “Lovin’.”
A quick look at the 2025 pass rush metrics, and we find the Patriots near the bottom of many measurements. But since tinkering with his defense during a Week 14 bye, Vrabel has upped the intensity and output of this Patriots pass rush.
New England’s blitz rate has jumped from less than 25% to more than 36% of snaps since Week 15, with 20 sacks over the past seven games — a dozen coming in the three postseason outings.
Vrabel is coming for Darnold’s soul on February 8, hoping to conjure the infamous “ghosts” that once haunted the Seahawks QB like he was the little kid in “The Sixth Sense.” He’ll look to attack the interior of Seattle’s pass protection, exploiting weak links Anthony Bradford at guard and center Jalen Sundell.
Darnold suffered only 27 sacks in the regular season, but his blocking has been shoddy down the stretch. Sixteen of those QB kills came in the final six games of the schedule, and he’s been sacked five times in two playoff contests. That’s an average of 2.6 sacks per game since Week 13.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown
Best bet: Rhamondre Stevenson
(+160 at bet365)
It took a while to get there, but the Patriots have been “Faithfully” going with Rhamondre Stevenson as their lead running back since Week 13.
Watching his “wheels go 'round and 'round” has Stevenson’s anytime touchdown odds on my mind.
He’s been especially huge for the Patriots in the playoffs, but despite reclaiming the RB1 role, he’s yet to find the end zone in the tournament. He finished the regular season with at least one tuddy in three straight, crossing the goal line a collective six times in those outings.
We’re seeing the sweetest ATTD price on Rhamondre in quite a while, with his touchdown odds around +135 in the past month. But it’s for good reason.
Seattle has an elite run stop and has allowed only five rushing and two receiving TDs to running backs. There’s also the chance Maye opts to keep it himself on short-and-goal situations, vulturing Stevenson’s scores.
That said, player projections for Super Bowl LX put a Stevenson touchdown between 0.49 and 0.83, with my number at 0.59. That makes the +160 return on a Big Game strike very appealing, especially with the way he’s blossomed as a receiving threat over the past eight games.
My NFL Underdogs column is 35-22-2 ATS this season for +9.14 units.
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