According to the Super Bowl LX odds, the New England Patriots have about a 34% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy on February 8.
Upsetting the Seattle Seahawks wouldn’t be the biggest shocker in Super Bowl history, and if the Patriots are going to punch above their weight, it will be because of these three factors.
Here are three reasons why New England can win the Super Bowl.
Drake Maye’s legs
The New England Patriots offense has faced a trio of top-tier defenses en route to Santa Clara and now faces perhaps its stiffest test against the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle generates pressure on the quarterback without heavy blitzing, recording the seventh-most sacks, ninth-most QB hits, and the second-most hurries, all while bringing extra defenders on just 19.3% of snaps.
Drake Maye’s pass protection hasn’t been stellar in the postseason, with the Patriots QB being sacked 15 times. However, when the chips are down and plays break down, the second-year passer has scrambled for big gains and crucial first downs, rushing 24 times for 141 total yards in the tournament.
Seattle hasn’t faced a quarterback with wheels like Maye in quite some time. The last true dual-threat they faced was Jayden Daniels in Week 9 against the Washington Commanders, who finished with 51 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
Even quarterbacks not typically considered runners — like Brock Purdy, Bryce Young, Cam Ward, and Jacoby Brissett — have taken chunks out of Seattle’s defense with their legs.
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Run Defense
New England got big bodies Milton Williams and Khyiris Tonga back just before the playoffs, and the Pats are once again stifling running backs. So far in the postseason, New England has allowed just 214 rushing yards on 3.1 yards per carry, with a 31.6% success rate per attempt.
Seattle's ground game is solid but thin with Zach Charbonnet out for the tournament. The offensive line has worked hard to elevate RB Kenneth Walker III, who lacks the breakneck speed or size to pose a major threat.
Shutting down Seattle’s rushing attack is vital for two reasons:
First, it prevents manageable third downs and extended drives.
Second, it removes the element of surprise from Klint Kubiak’s play-action offense, forcing it into a one-dimensional attack and putting pressure on QB Sam Darnold to make throws when the defense expects the pass.
That leads us to reason No. 3...
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Takeaways
New England has been an opportunistic defense — at least in the playoffs. Through three postseason games, the Patriots have recorded eight takeaways, with most coming from interceptions.
The biggest threat for anyone betting on Seattle is Darnold’s turnover issues. The Seahawks QB has been clean through two playoff games, but he also threw 14 interceptions in the regular season — the third-most in the NFL. Six of those came on third downs when Darnold was in more obvious passing situations.
Mike Vrabel will sell out to stop the run and force Darnold to throw. He’s done a great job transforming a “meh” Patriots pass rush into a chaotic unit down the stretch, disguising pressures, blitzing more frequently, and forcing quarterbacks into bad spots.
Since Week 15, New England’s defense has recorded 20 sacks, with a spike in QB pressure success rate helping generate 13 takeaways over the past seven games. In three playoff outings, the Pats have racked up a dozen sacks, and that constant hounding breeds mistakes.
Seattle’s protection has been inconsistent this season, with Darnold taking 27 sacks in the regular season and five more in the playoffs. Play-action schemes take longer to develop, keeping him in the pocket longer and increasing his vulnerability.
While Darnold has improved his poise under pressure and against the blitz over the past two seasons, his production still dips in those situations. When kept clean, he ranks No. 5 among all QBs at PFF; under pressure, that rating plummets to No. 38, with eight of his 14 INTs coming under duress.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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