New York Jets Picks
1st in AFC East
(1 - 0 - 0)
Next Game
GB @ NYJ Picks
NFL PicksGeno Smith looked great in Week 1. That’s to say, he didn’t make crucial mistakes or turn the ball over versus the Titans, despite Tennessee running a high rate of zone coverage. Zone has been Geno’s kryptonite throughout his career and he’s going to see plenty of it versus Green Bay and their DC Jonathan Gannon. Smith finished with 17 INTs to just 19 TDs in Las Vegas last year and with the Jets playing behind in a negative game script, Geno could press passes a little too much and find himself in trouble. Projections trend toward at least one interception, sitting as high as 80%. Rainy conditions could also toss a little chaos into the mix at MetLife Stadium.
This is still a +EV TD with a fair price of 3.5x (28.6%), and it's easy to see why. Braelon Allen saw double-digit carries last week against the Titans and played the majority of the snaps on third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go. It was Breece Hall getting the red-zone carries, but there weren't any short TD opportunities, and Allen handled the majority of the third-down work. The Packers gave up TDs to both Minnesota backs last week and were one of the worst teams in the red zone, allowing a touchdown on all four Minnesota opportunities inside the 20. Their turnovers and penalties can only help New York keep a neutral game script.
The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.
There's no denying it: the New York Jets looked downright competent in Week 1. Breece Hall ran for 102 yards, Geno Smith was efficient in the passing game, and the defense held the Tennessee Titans to -0.28 EPA per pass. At home, I like New York to cover against the Green Bay Packers as long as the spread stays above a field goal.
This looks like a classic Week 2 betting spot. The Jets are flying high after their Week 1 win over the Titans, but I think that performance says more about how awful Tennessee is as opposed to how strong the Jets might be. As for the Packers, their 39-22 loss to the Vikings is misleading when you consider they won the yards per play battle 6.3 to 3.9 while they were also leading the game halfway through the fourth quarter. Expect a big bounce back for the Packers.
Gang Green looked good in Frank Reich's offense - even if it was against Titans (5.8 yds/play). The Packers were cruising until that fateful call to take points off the board and then get stuffed on 4th. Green Bay averaged 6.3 yds/play versus a very good Vikings defense. Get Over 43.5 now short of key of 44 O/U.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusGB @ NYJ · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Under
44.5 Total
43.77 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o205.5 Passing Yards
224.49 OVER
PROJECTION
+19.0
DIFFERENCE
25.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
G. Smith
(QB)
o7.5 Rushing Yards
17.54 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.0
DIFFERENCE
26.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Love
(QB)
o6.5 Rushing Yards
11.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
24.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
B. Hall
(RB)
u67.5 Rushing Yards
60.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-6.8
DIFFERENCE
23.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
M. Lloyd
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
54.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.7
DIFFERENCE
21.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
G. Wilson
(WR)
o64.5 Receiving Yards
74.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
25.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
NYJ
K. Sadiq
(TE)
o21.5 Receiving Yards
27.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.9
DIFFERENCE
23.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
C. Watson
(WR)
o58.5 Receiving Yards
63.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
21.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
C. Watson
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions Made
4.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
8.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
NYJ
K. Sadiq
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions Made
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
6.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS MADE
G. Wilson
(WR)
o5.5 Receptions Made
6.12 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
J. Love
(QB)
u33.5 Passing Attempts
29.88 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.6
DIFFERENCE
19.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING ATTEMPTS
G. Smith
(QB)
o29.5 Passing Attempts
30.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING COMPLETIONS
G. Smith
(QB)
o19.5 Passing Completions
21.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
15.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Smith
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.18 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
25.66%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
M. Lloyd
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.52 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
J. Love
(QB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.14 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
20.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
C. Watson
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.44 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
16.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
G. Wilson
(WR)
Anytime Touchdown
0.38 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
14.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
NYJ
K. Sadiq
(TE)
Anytime Touchdown
0.16 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
9.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
B. Hall
(RB)
Anytime Touchdown
0.5 TDs
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
-2.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
J. Love
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.41 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
14.68%
EV
|
|||||||
|
INTERCEPTIONS THROWN
G. Smith
(QB)
u0.5 Interceptions Thrown
0.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
11.34%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low