Atlanta Falcons

Picks

Young has cashed the Under in passing yards in three of his last four appearances, and he's up against the best pass defense in the league on Sunday. 

Bijan Robinson has seen his role as a receiver drop in recent weeks. He bookended a 10-target, eight-catch, 50-yard receiving effort vs. New England in Week 9 with only three targets against Miami and two targets in last week’s loss to Indianapolis in Germany. This is a notable decline from his work earlier in the season, when he drew at least five targets in each of the the opening six games. With Tyler Allgeier gaining ground in terms of handoffs, head coach Raheem Morris told reporters that, “Bijan Robinson will get going. We’ll just continue to find different creative ways to get him the football.” There’s only two ways to get him the ball. Receiving projections for Week 11’s home stand with Carolina range from 36 to 44 yards through the air, with receptions bouncing between four and five receptions. He caught five of six balls for 39 yards vs. Carolina earlier this season.

This could be buyback week for Rico Dowdle. The Panthers’ RB has played his way to the top of the depth chart, with some help from Chuba Hubbard’s injury issues. This week, Dowdle was dealing with a quads injury and while he’s not expected to miss this Week 11 run-in with Atlanta, he may not log the same workload. Coach Dave Canales talked to reporters about a possible split between the two RBs and commented on how strong Hubbard has looked, despite getting only eight total carries the past two games. Projections for Dowdle range from 77 to 90 yards but most slide in below his rushing total of 89.5 yards. This is his second tallest total of the season, seeing a significant spike since his breakout in October.

If the Falcons want to snap a four-game skid, they need to lean on Pro Bowl running back Bijan Robinson who has rushed for 679 yards and 5.0 yards per carry. Robinson rushed for 84 yards last week and this Sunday he'll face the Panthers who are 20th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They'll be missing LB Trevin Wallace while their best DL Derrick Brown is hindered by a knee injury.  When these division rivals previously clashed in Week 3, Robinson rushed for 72 yards on 13 carries despite Atlanta playing with a negative game script in a blowout loss. Expect a closer contest here which should lead to him going Over 72.5 yards.

I needed a Bijan Robinson touchdown last week and got burned by Tyler Allgeier, so it’s time to flip the script and back the bigger back at a solid number. Per Adam Levitan, Allgeier has 13 carries inside the 10 compared to Robinson’s five. When Atlanta gets near the goal line, it’s Allgeier’s show. He’s scored in five of nine games this season, and even after his two-touchdown performance in Berlin, +185 isn’t his shortest price of the year. With Michael Penix struggling in the red zone — his completion percentage there is worse than Justin Fields’ — expect Atlanta to keep it on the ground. Allgeier is the guy to cash in close.

The pendulum has swung way too far with this miniscule 160.5 passing yards total for Young. Sure, he’s been limited to just 364 passing yards across his past three starts, but he’ll also be a road underdog inside of Mercedes-Benz Stadium against a reeling Atlanta pass defense in Week 11. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks the past three weeks while ranking 20th in pass defense DVOA and ranking 19th in EPA per dropback. 

The Panthers have faced the 30th easiest schedule per PFF through 10 weeks, and the Falcons have faced the 11th hardest. I’m expecting Atlanta to show up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and win this NFC South showdown after tough losses the past two weeks, while Carolina has only scored 23 points and ranks 25th in EPA per play across its past two games. The Falcons return to the wins column and cover the number Sunday.