Philadelphia @ Kansas City Picks & Props

I think this is a sneaky good spot to play Calcaterra, given the Chiefs’ breakdown in coverage last week against a technically weaker Chargers offense. They allowed 68 yards on three catches to L.A.’s two tight ends, and last year they also allowed the seventh-most targets to opposing tight ends. The middle of the field should be wide open again.

On the flip side, the Chiefs got tremendous push up front and sat top-10 in both pass protection and run blocking, with the interior doing most of the heavy lifting. KC will be able to establish the run, and that could open the door for Hunt to get involved in a myriad of ways.

Thornton saw 72% of the snaps last week after Worthy was injured, and he delivered a huge 38-yard catch-and-run on a day when he caught two of his four targets. The matchup couldn’t be any better, too, with Adoree’ Jackson coming off a bad game and standing as Philly’s worst starting corner, and all we need in theory to get home here is one or two catches.

Kareem Hunt is never going to get back to the form of his early years in Kansas City, but he had seven touchdowns in 13 games last season, and we’re getting +260 on him to score on Sunday.

 The Chiefs might be forced into running the ball a bit, and after seeing the Cowboys’ success last week, they’ll be hunting for the end zone on the ground.

Whether it’s with the tush push or on a scramble, Hurts is always a good bet to score, and we can’t pass him up at this price.

Hurts rushed 14 times for 62 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. He has now scored a TD in 12 of his last 15 games, including the Super Bowl when he rumbled for 72 yards and a score against the Chiefs. Hurts is practically unstoppable at the goal line thanks to the "tush push" that was nearly banned in the offseason. The Chiefs defense looked vulnerable in Week 1, surrendering 27 points and ranking 30th in the league in defensive EPA. They struggled to generate pressure outside of Chris Jones and their secondary was torched by Justin Herbert. The Eagles should be able to score points and Hurts should find the end zone. 

AJ Brown has the classic squeaky-wheel narrative this week after seeing just one target in Week 1. For reference, his worst game last season was 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 vs. Dallas. He scored in 9 of 17 games, including the playoffs, and had a TD in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs despite limited volume. Kansas City gave up two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston last week and made Justin Herbert look like an MVP candidate. I’ll take the bounce-back spot on a motivated WR1 at a decent number.

I'm not discounting the Eagles for a soft Week 1 showing, due to a weird weathe delay and Jalen Carter's ejection. This is the defense that gave Patrick Mahomes fits in the Super Bowl and Vic Fangio is already prepping for a KC attack that's looking to stretch the field - despite a thin WR corps. Some books have Philadelphia as a fave, some are at a pick'em. But I'll take the points with the Eagles, who are in much better shape heading into Week 2 than the Chiefs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.2 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.0. . When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season.. Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the best QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 263.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.2 plays per game.. Travis Kelce has run a route on 86.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to accrue 8.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs.. When it comes to air yards, Travis Kelce ranks in the lofty 99th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 57.0 per game.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.2 plays per game.. The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to accrue 9.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. Marquise Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 25.9% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive gameplan to lean 3.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.. The predictive model expects Saquon Barkley to notch 3.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.. In regards to air yards, Saquon Barkley grades out in the lofty 98th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 6.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Saquon Barkley has been in the 96th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 19.7 figure since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive gameplan to lean 3.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.. This week, Dallas Goedert is expected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.3 targets.. With an extraordinary 23.6% Target Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Dallas Goedert ranks as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Chiefs defense has given up a monstrous 69.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the most in the league.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.2 plays per game.. Isiah Pacheco has run a route on 35.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive gameplan to lean 3.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.. Grant Calcaterra has played on 64.1% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.. With a fantastic 82.7% Adjusted Catch% (90th percentile) last year, Grant Calcaterra has been as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the shaky Chiefs defense has given up a monstrous 69.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the most in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive gameplan to lean 3.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.. In this contest, A.J. Brown is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.8 targets.. With a high 34.6% Target% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, A.J. Brown ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.. As it relates to air yards, A.J. Brown grades out in the towering 91st percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accumulating a remarkable 88.0 per game.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to run on 49.8% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The Eagles have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a staggering 59.9 plays per game.. In this contest, Jalen Hurts is projected by our trusted projection set to accumulate the most carries among all QBs with 10.0. . The predictive model expects Jalen Hurts to be a more integral piece of his team's running game in this week's contest (31.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (26.2% in games he has played).. With an impressive record of 44.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (93rd percentile), Jalen Hurts rates among the top rushing QBs in the league since the start of last season.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 34.5% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are predicted by the predictive model to run just 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.. Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 103.0 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Philadelphia's DT corps has been terrific since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.