49ers @ Eagles Picks & Props

A quick peek at San Francisco's schedule shows the Niners haven’t been able to score their way to wins against quality defenses, with four of their five losses coming against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are sixth in the metric while allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per play and fifth-fewest points per game (19.1). San Francisco hasn’t been a defensive juggernaut, either, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. Given their bounty of weapons and a solid offensive line that could receive a boost in left tackle Lane Johnson (foot), the Eagles will find success on offense.

The Eagles opened as 5-point home favorites in the Wild Card round, but the defending Super Bowl champs have been overrated all year. The Eagles 3-3 in their last six games against teams with a winning record, with only one of those victories coming by more than a field goal. San Francisco finished the regular season with one more win than Philly, despite facing a tougher schedule, and is also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings. Kyle Shanahan and an explosive 49ers' offense will be able to keep things competitive here.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.9 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.. This year, the weak San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a colossal 227.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 6th-most in the league.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are anticipated by the projections to call just 62.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.9 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.9% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.. Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 3.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.9 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 98th percentile among wideouts with 9.1 targets.. A.J. Brown has accumulated a staggering 95.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.9 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. In this game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the projections to find himself in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.2 targets.. Dallas Goedert has accrued a whopping 37.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the 49ers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. In this contest, Jauan Jennings is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 86th percentile among wideouts with 7.1 targets.

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the 49ers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Christian McCaffrey has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (68.1%).. Our trusted projections expect Christian McCaffrey to total 7.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.. Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Eagles defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (36.0) vs. running backs this year.

In this game, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 95th percentile among RBs with 17.9 carries.. Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (68.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).. With a stellar record of 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (94th percentile), Christian McCaffrey rates among the best running backs in football this year.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. Saquon Barkley has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0).. Saquon Barkley's 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a noteworthy regression in his running ability over last year's 5.5 mark.. Saquon Barkley has been one of the weakest running backs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.71 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.