Brock Purdy threw nine of his 10 total interceptions when targeting in-breaking routes this season and the Eagles are one of the best in the NFL at defending those passes.
The 49ers are 31st in the league in defensive success rate since Nick Bosa tore his ACL in Week 3. That stop unit has been even worse after losing All Pro LB Fred Warner to a season-ending injury in October. With All-Pro LT Trent Williams banged up and a WR corps unable to stretch the field without Ricky Pearsall, San Fran's usually explosive offense has struggled against good defenses. They will need to score a ton of points if they want to cover this spread and I don't think they'll be able to. They were held to three points and 173 yards last week and now travel across the country to face the Eagles who rank fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate since Week 8.
The Niners avoid any significant winter weather in Philly and I believe we could see more points than expected, at least to open the game. Both offenses sit Top 10 in first half scoring, with a notable split between Philadelphia's production in the opening 30 minutes and the final two frames. San Francisco should see a boost on offense with star OT Trent Williams expected back. The 49ers finished the regular season 11-5 O/U against 1H totals.
He’s been a touchdown machine in recent weeks, finishing with four TDs in his final three games. The Eagles activate him in the red zone in a number of ways, including some slick “chest pass” misdirection. San Francisco had a tough time with TEs, including giving up 10 touchdowns to the position. Fred Warner was their best coverage LB, he’s gone. Dee Winters the second best coverage LB, runs the risk of missing Saturday.
The anytime touchdown prop for Dallas Goedert looks mispriced especially with wideouts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith priced slightly lower. Goedert leads the Eagles with 11 TDs which is as many as Smith and Brown combined. He also had a team-high nine targets inside the 10-yard line, reeling in eight of them for touchdowns. Meanwhile, Brown and Smith combined for eight targets and four scores inside the 10-yard line. The 49ers are also worse at defending tight ends than wide receivers. They are 24th in the league in receptions allowed to TEs while allowing 10 TDs to the position.
The Eagles’ offense wasn’t at its best during the regular season under OC Kevin Patullo, but Jalen Hurts is a different player in January. He’s rested, confident, and the reigning Super Bowl MVP who consistently elevates his game when it matters most. Hurts’ rushing usage spikes in the playoffs, where he has 10 rushing touchdowns in nine career postseason games. If the ball is on the one- or two-yard line, it’s almost always his number getting called. His median TD price is -110 over his last 10 games. Getting plus money here is a strong buy. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles are just getting started.
Hurts’ passing stock dropped at the end of the year. He had a bad day against the Bills top-tier passing defense and then really didn’t need to push the ball deep in one-sided win over Washington and Vegas. The 49ers play a very passive style, don’t blitz, have no pass rush, bend but don’t break in terms of keeping everything in front of them. Hurts is great when given time to throw. Projections vary but majority come in above this low total with a ceiling as high as 233 yards.
A quick peek at San Francisco's schedule shows the Niners haven’t been able to score their way to wins against quality defenses, with four of their five losses coming against teams ranking seventh or higher in defensive DVOA. The Eagles are sixth in the metric while allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per play and fifth-fewest points per game (19.1). San Francisco hasn’t been a defensive juggernaut, either, finishing 27th in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-highest EPA per play. Given their bounty of weapons and a solid offensive line that could receive a boost in left tackle Lane Johnson (foot), the Eagles will find success on offense.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are anticipated by the projections to call just 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Brock Purdy has run for 0.27 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to QBs (90th percentile).. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL versus the Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a meager 0.82 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the smallest rate in football.
The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. At the present time, the most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (52.4% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Eagles.. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are anticipated by the projections to call just 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Christian McCaffrey has run for 0.53 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL versus the Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.
This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the 49ers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. With an impressive 26.5% Red Zone Target Share (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey places among the pass-game running backs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.. Christian McCaffrey has accumulated a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. Christian McCaffrey's 41.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 33.9.. Christian McCaffrey's 84.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 80.8% rate.
The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.. This year, the daunting 49ers run defense has conceded a paltry 0.76 rushing TDs per game to opposing squads: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.
The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.. This year, the weak San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a colossal 227.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 6th-most in the league.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are anticipated by the projections to call just 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.. Brock Purdy has thrown for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (208.0) this year than he did last year (258.0).. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the lowest rate in the NFL versus the Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.05 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.9% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.. Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 3.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 8.8 targets.. A.J. Brown has accumulated a staggering 95.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
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