Oddsmakers continue to underestimate Houston, who has the top-rated defense in the league in terms of EPA/play. With C.J. Stroud under center, the Texans also have a decent offense so long as they're playing against a defense that can't take advantage of their poor pass protection. With the Chiefs in the Bottom 10 in pressure rate and sacks, they won't force Stroud into bad decisions. I'm reluctant to bet against Patrick Mahomes with a short spread at home, but the Chiefs tend to start slow, so take the points with the Texans in the first half.
Jayden Higgins’ targets are climbing with at least five in four straight games, and the 6-foot-4 WR has four TDs on the year — two in the past four weeks.
Hunt totaled 80 yards on 15 touches last week but failed to find the end zone. That snapped a four-game touchdown streak for the veteran RB. Isiah Pacheco returned to the Chiefs' backfield last week after missing a month with a knee injury. He could start to cut into Hunt's reps, but he won't be utilized anywhere near as much near the goal line. Pacheco has logged 81 carries this season, but doesn't have a single carry inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, Hunt has 14 carries inside the 5-yard line and turned seven of those into TDs.
The Texans selected Jayden Higgins with the 34th in the draft after a stellar career at Iowa State. The rookie has made an immediate impact, snagging a touchdown in four of the last nine games. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound wideout provides a big target in the red zone and has earned the trust of CJ Stroud. He's seen 28 targets over his last four games despite the return of Christian Kirk to a crowded WR room in Houston. Since Week 6, Higgins is second on the Texans in red-zone targets with seven — just two behind Nico Collins whose anytime TD prop sits at +165. Higgins provides far better value at +380.
The Mahomes passing yards O/U prop has been cut back as a nod to Houston’s top-tier defense, but the Chiefs have advantages in their favor, including the homefield edge and a chilly night at Arrowhead. With Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy to target, Mahomes has options to negate the Texans’ pass rush, and he’s nailed this Over in nine straight outings. That includes 352 passing yards in his last home contest, where he served up catches to nine different receivers. I’m counting on Mahomes to pull out the big plays and outmaneuver Houston on SNF.
Let’s take a swing in what could be a low-scoring game. Cade Stover played only 41% of the snaps last week against the Colts and finished with two catches for 16 yards, but he also logged four carries and has taken on a short-yardage role. Three of those four carries came in the red zone, and one of his two targets was inside the 10. Coaches love showing off their creativity near the goal line, and Stover is exactly the type of player who can end up on the receiving end of a gadget look. This is a half-unit play for me, and I’d take it down to +800.
Constant hounding forced Stroud to take off with the football six times for 42 rushing yards in that postseason matchup with the Chiefs last year. In his first seven games of 2025, Stroud was also doing damage with his legs. He rushed four or more times in five of those games, amassing at least 22 rushing yards in all but one of those seven showings before suffering a concussion in Week 8. The Chiefs’ pass rush has prompted rival QBs to turn into runners at a high rate, with KC seeing the fourth highest rushing attempts from the position and allowing the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks. Player projections for Stroud all sit above his current rushing bar of 12.5 yards, with most models at 16-plus and a ceiling off 23 yards.
Houston has held its last three foes to 19 points or less, including the Colts in Week 13. The Texans know this Andy Reid offensive all too well after losing 23-14 to Kansas City in the Divisional Round last January, despite checking Patrick Mahomes & Co. to just 212 total yards. As for the Houston offense, it has to come outside in the cold – not C.J. Stroud’s favorite setting – with Arrowhead Stadium expected to “feel like” 12 degrees for Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs’ scoring has sputtered too, with a lack of explosive plays and the offense stalling out in the red zone. Kansas City was able to put up some points indoor against a shoddy Dallas defense, but Houston is a different beast. I’m betting the Under 43.5 now with some sportsbooks already sliding below the key number and this total likely to drop closer to 41 once weather reports make the rounds.
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.3% to 65.2%.. This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has given up a mere 65.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.. The Houston Texans cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year.. This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-fewest in football.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 68.3% to 65.2%.. This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has conceded a meager 185.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best in the league.. This year, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing squads: a feeble 6.6 yards.. The Houston Texans cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best CB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.
A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.5% pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.1%) versus running backs this year (85.1%).
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure.. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 43.0 per game.. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 figure last season.. The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year.. Dalton Schultz comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decrease in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate.. The Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.. In this week's contest, Rashee Rice is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets.. Rashee Rice has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.. Isiah Pacheco's 50.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful boost in his passing game volume over last season's 33.5% figure.. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
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