Texans @ Chiefs Picks & Props

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.5% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). Nico Collins has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among WRs.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.5% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (75.3% Adjusted Completion%).

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.5% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). When it comes to air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the towering 96th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling an impressive 45.0 per game.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. The model projects Travis Kelce to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line in this contest (18.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -4-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Texans to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 62.5% pass rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). C.J. Stroud's 65.4% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects an impressive growth in his passing accuracy over last year's 61.0% mark.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.3 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs.