Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in the unfamiliar territory of a must-win Week 14 matchup as they face the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
At 6-6, the Chiefs have used up their margin for error, and they’ll need No. 15 to produce some magic against an elite Houston defense.
With the O/U lines dipping, the Patrick Mahomes odds are worth monitoring, and my NFL picks don’t see him letting KC’s playoff hopes die without a fight in this December 7 clash.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Over 234.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes said it himself after the Kansas City Chiefs’ loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving: “You’ve got to win every game now - and hope that’s enough.”
That sounds like a man ready to put on his cape and take charge down the stretch. I don’t have much faith in KC running the ball consistently against this Houston Texans front, so look for Andy Reid to put the ball in Mahomes’ hands and trust the results.
The Mahomes passing yards O/U prop has been cut back as a nod to Houston’s top-tier defense, but the Chiefs have advantages in their favor, including the homefield edge and a chilly night at Arrowhead.
With Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy to target, Mahomes has options to negate the Texans’ pass rush, and he’s nailed this Over in nine straight outings. That includes 352 passing yards in his last home contest, where he served up catches to nine different receivers.
I’m counting on Mahomes to pull out the big plays and outmaneuver Houston on SNF.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 234.5 passing yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 rushing yards
Kareem Hunt Over 5.5 receiving yards
Even as Mahomes settles into a rhythm, there are going to be snaps where the Texans flush him from the pocket. However, he can still be dangerous in those scenarios, extending plays and scrambling for first downs.
Mahomes has posted 30 rushing yards in back-to-back games, and he’ll have to use his legs out of necessity here. The three-time MVP also ran for 33 yards and a touchdown against Houston in 2024.
I'm also taking the Over on Kareem Hunt's receiving yards. The Kansas City running back is a reliable outlet when Mahomes is under pressure, and Hunt is coming off consecutive outings with 20+ receiving yards.
As long as he’s getting the majority of the backfield snaps for the Chiefs, Hunt is going to get opportunities in the passing game, and he’s a tough guy to bring down when he’s on the move.
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