Jordan Love could be busy against the Broncos. The Packers’ rushing attack has injuries and ailments in Week 15 and faces an extremely tough interior defense from Denver, ranked No. 7 in run stop win rate at ESPN. Love will be dropping back more and looking to get rid of the ball quickly, with the Broncos’ pass rush coming after him. Denver runs man at one of the highest rates in the league and Love boasts a Top 3 passer rating vs. man coverage. He’s completed at least 22 passes in each game this season and most Week 15 projections sit at 19 or higher with a ceiling of 22 completions.
Capable of contributing both on the ground and through the air, I'm taking Harvey to find the endzone add to his total of nine touchdowns on the season.
Nix has been throwing the ball more as of late, and should hit his completion Over against a Packers defense that allows opponents to complete 65.3% of their passes.
Christian Watson has been one of the best touchdown producers in football over the last four weeks with five total TDs, and the Denver matchup is keeping this number above two dollars in Week 15. The Green Bay receiver room isn’t the mess it used to be. Watson and Romeo Doubs are handling most of the routes, with Jayden Reed rotating in for 3-WR sets. If Watson ever opened in the +130 to +140 range in a good matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me, so this could be the best price we see for a while. He’s already cashed at +175 and +200 in consecutive weeks.
The Broncos' 11-2 SU mark is built on owning the trenches with the offensive and defensive lines among the best in the business. Denver is one of only three teams that rank Top 10 in every OL/DL win rate metric at ESPN (pass rush, pass block, run stop, run block). Keeping the Packers’ pass rush at bay and slamming the door on Green Bay’s run-heavy sets is the key to keeping the Broncos’ 10-game winning streak alive – or at least covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 15.
The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL at 11-2 and they shouldn't be underdogs against anybody at home, especially since they're 6-0 with a scoring margin of +10.0 ppg at Mile High Stadium, where they benefit from a significant home-field advantage due to elevation. The Broncos have an elite stop unit that ranks second in the league in defensive success rate. They've piled up a league-high 55 sacks, and that pressure will make things tough for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. Take the Broncos at plus money in a game where they should be slight favorites or a pick'em at worst.
The Pack rank higher in DVOA while pacing the NFL in EPA per play, and I particularly value the gap in quarterback play. Green Bay QB Jordan Love paced the league in EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for the second most air yards during his recent three-game NFC North sweep, and his receiving tree is filling out with wideout Christian Watson reemerging as a big-play threat and playmaker Jayden Reed (foot/shoulder) back in action in Week 14. Denver QB Bo Nix is going to have his hands full Sunday afternoon. Green Bay ranks ninth in defensive DVOA while allowing the fifth-fewest yards per play, and Nix checks in 18th in EPA+CPOE composite, and his 6.3 yards per attempt and 63.2 completion percentage are both also below-average marks. The Packers generate pressure at a respectable 12th-highest clip despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league, too.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.. The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accumulate 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.. Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 11.1% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among running backs.. With an exceptional 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs rates as one of the top RBs in the pass game in the NFL.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game versus the Packers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.. Luke Musgrave's 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a material boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 6.0 rate.. The Broncos defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (63.0) versus TEs this year.
The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to garner 17.9 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.. Josh Jacobs has earned 64.7% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.. The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.
Jordan Love has rushed for substantially more yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).. Jordan Love's 5.78 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season signifies a substantial progression in his running prowess over last season's 4.94 rate.. The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to run 66.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week.. The Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game.
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