Chargers @ Chiefs Picks & Props

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this season represents a material regression in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this year, accumulating just 4.6 adjusted receptions vs 6.1 last year.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Rashee Rice's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 81.1% to 69.9%. This year, the strong Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game. This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in football.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 127.1 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Kareem Hunt's 75.5% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 86.2% mark. The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) versus RBs this year (77.1%).

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.

Noah Gray has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Quentin Johnston has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Keenan Allen has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Worthy has gone over 2.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Kimani Vidal has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Hollywood Brown has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.