Chargers @ Chiefs Picks & Props

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Rashee Rice's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 81.1% to 69.9%.. This year, the strong Chargers defense has given up a paltry 58.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this season represents a material regression in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate.. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this year, accumulating just 4.6 adjusted receptions vs 6.1 last year.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the league.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Kareem Hunt's 75.5% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year's 86.2% mark.. The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) versus RBs this year (77.1%).

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a feeble 1.08 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the best in football.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their chances: the 10th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (63.2% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Kansas City Chiefs.. The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. In racking up a massive 38.2 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes slots in among the top quarterbacks in football (97th percentile) by this metric.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 68.3% to 63.6%.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.0% Adjusted Completion%).

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. In tallying a whopping 33.6 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert places among the top quarterbacks in the league (83rd percentile) in this statistic.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. In tallying a whopping 33.6 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert places among the top quarterbacks in the league (83rd percentile) in this statistic.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. In tallying a whopping 33.6 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert places among the top quarterbacks in the league (83rd percentile) in this statistic.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Patrick Mahomes's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 68.3% to 63.6%.. This year, the tough Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a feeble 189.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the league.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.. When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the best in football.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Los Angeles's defense grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year as it relates to producing interceptions, notching 1.10 per game.. The Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (66.9%) versus wideouts this year (66.9%).

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 59.4% of their chances: the 10th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.. The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.. Travis Kelce's 18.3% Target Rate this season represents a material regression in his air attack workload over last season's 24.6% rate.. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.53 rate last year.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. This year, the deficient Chiefs pass defense has yielded a monstrous 87.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in football.

The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. In this week's game, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 5.6. . Justin Herbert has been a more important option in his offense's run game this season (17.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%).. Justin Herbert's 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks a material boost in his rushing ability over last year's 19.0 figure.. With a terrific total of 7.0 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (93rd percentile), Justin Herbert has been as one of the best rushing QBs in the league this year.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).. In averaging a massive 4.2 rush attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes places among the top quarterbacks in the league (75th percentile) as it relates to ground game workload.. After comprising 9.3% of his team's carries last season, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the ground game this season, now taking on 17.6%.. Patrick Mahomes has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. Kareem Hunt has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this season (43.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (60.4%).. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's group of DTs has been great this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to run on 40.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Chargers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally prompt better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.. The Chiefs linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.. In this week's game, Justin Herbert is expected by the model to accrue the 6th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 5.6. . Justin Herbert has been a more important option in his offense's run game this season (17.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 126.8 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.. The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's group of DTs has been great this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The 4th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average).