Jets @ Jaguars Picks & Props

The projections expect the Jets to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 54.8% pass rate. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased rush volume. The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.5%) versus tight ends this year (71.5%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

The projections expect the Jets to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 54.8% pass rate. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased rush volume. The Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.1%) vs. wideouts this year (61.1%). As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 7th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.4 per game) this year. Jakobi Meyers's 52.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 61.2.

The projections expect the Jets to be the least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 54.8% pass rate. Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased rush volume. Breece Hall has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (44.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (60.6%). Breece Hall's receiving performance has diminished this season, totaling just 2.1 adjusted receptions vs 3.6 last season. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's LB corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 135.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. The 8th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average). The projections expect Brenton Strange to accumulate 5.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs. Brenton Strange has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing game this year (17.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (10.5%). With a remarkable 3.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Brenton Strange has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the league.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Isaiah Williams has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 3.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Parker Washington has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Bhayshul Tuten has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.