The 49ers have once again been bit hard by the injury bug and I think the wheels could fall off on Thursday night and they could start to look like the team that went 1-7 in their final eight games last season.
Nacua leads the NFL in targets (50), receptions (42), and receiving yards (503). He's been targeted a whopping 15 times in each of the last two weeks and has been a model of consistency, eclipsing this number in 10 of his last 14 games. That includes a contest against the Niners last year where he finished with seven catches for 97 yards despite heavy rain. Nacua thrives against zone coverage and the Niners play zone at a Top-10 rate. The Niners also have the fourth-lowest pressure rate in the league which should give Stafford plenty of time to find his favorite target.
The 49ers WR corps has been decimated by injuries. With the Niners rolling out Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson as their starting wideouts on Thursday, L.A. will be able to load the box and focus on stopping All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has been racking up yards as a receiver but has struggled to find room on the ground. He's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry and has rushed for 55 yards or less in his last three games. He should get plenty of work in the passing game but will have a hard time running the ball against a Rams D that sits in the Top-10 in defensive rush success rate and yards allowed per carry (3.9).
The Niners have generated the fourth lowest pressure rate and rank near the bottom of the league in hurries, QB hits, and sacks. Leaving Stafford to his own devices in the pocket is poison for any opponent. Stafford also thrives against zone coverage – something San Francisco plays almost exclusively under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. Week 5 projections are all positive as well, ranging from 1.5 to 1.82 TD connections from the veteran QB.
Corum was held to 21 yards on nine carries with two catches for minus-5 yards on Sunday. While he had an ugly game, his usage shows that the Rams intend to keep giving him touches to keep Kyren Williams fresh. Corum had five rushes for 44 yards in Week 2 before rushing for 53 yards on eight carries in Week 3. The sophomore RB was a first-team All-American at Michigan and should bounce back with a more efficient performance on TNF. The 49ers are 18th in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and will be worse after losing Nick Bosa to a season-ending injury. They struggled to contain the run without Bosa last week, allowing 144 yards on 25 designed runs.
Ram WR Puka Nacua has been the most productive receiver in the league, but teammate Davante Adams has been getting more looks than him in the red zone. Nacua leads the NFL with 50 targets this year but only three of those have come inside the red zone. Meanwhile, Adams has been targeted 10 times inside the red zone and converted those throws into a pair of touchdowns. Adams isn't the elite player he was in his prime but he's still a dangerous weapon who has settled into the No. 2 WR role in L.A. With defenses focused on stopping Nacua, Adams can take advantage of matchups against weaker DBs.
With the 49ers decimated by injuries at receiver, they're using McCaffrey in the passing game more than ever. Through four games, McCaffrey has 69 rush attempts for 225 yards while racking up 31 catches for another 305 yards through the air. The All-Pro RB has struggled to run the ball in the red zone this year, rushing 16 times for just 10 yards. That said, he has five catches on eight targets in the red zone for a pair of touchdowns. The fact that he's getting such a high usage rate inside the 20-yard line bodes well for his long-term ability to find paydirt. Don't forget that McCaffrey is just two years removed from leading the NFL with 21 TDs.
This is a big drop from his last three weeks, with yardage totals around 70 yards plus. It’s the 49ers QB situation that has me buying back Run CMC. Whether it’s Brock Purdy or Mac Jones under center, the Niners need a big game from McCaffrey. After Sunday’s loss to the Jags, Kyle Shanahan emphasized the importance of creating more explosive runs. McCaffrey’s rushing totals have dipped as his receiving yards go up, but the Rams are fantastic at taking away those pass-catching backs. Week 5 projections for McCaffrey all well above the 58.5-yard total, ranging from 68 to as many as 83 rushing yards.
Our trusted projections expect the Rams to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Rams to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.. The predictive model expects Puka Nacua to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game near the end zone in this game (28.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).. After accumulating 75.0 air yards per game last year, Puka Nacua has produced significantly more this year, currently pacing 105.0 per game.
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect the Rams to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Rams to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.. In this contest, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.6. . Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 213.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Our trusted projections expect the Rams to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Rams to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.. In this contest, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by our trusted projection set to total the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.6. . The 49ers have intercepted 0.00 passes per game this year, grading out as the worst defense in the league by this statistic
Our trusted projections expect the Rams to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% pass rate.. The predictive model expects the Rams to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
The 49ers may rely on the pass game less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones.. A throwing game script is indicated by the 49ers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average).
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