Baltimore @ Buffalo Picks & Props

Allen’s made a habit of running the ball well in season openers, with 36+ rushing yards in each of his last six Week 1 contests. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel have both missed time during the preseason, and Keon Coleman popped up on the injury report this week. If there’s a lack of rhythm there, it will likely translate to more improvisation from Allen.

Overall, Allen has 27 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons. While he’ll sometimes score in bunches against the right matchup, the Buffalo superstar also started more regularly getting yardage and scores down the stretch last season, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in six of his last seven regular-season games. Allen gets chances near the goal line both on designed plays and scrambles. Getting nearly even money is far too generous given how frequently the reigning MVP finds paydirt.

A lot of the talk around Andrews coming into this game will be about his critical drop in Baltimore’s playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. Some will call it a revenge game; others will speculate over whether the team still trusts him. Both takes are best ignored. Focus on the fact that Andrews remains Jackson’s favorite target and scored time and again down the stretch last year. A big plus number makes the tight end a great pick to reach the end zone tonight.

Even at 31 years old, Derrick Henry remains a workhorse. The five-time Pro Bowler rushed 325 times for 1,935 yards last year. He has logged 19+ carries in six of his previous eight games and should have a heavy workload in Week 1.

King Henry had 24 carries for 199 yards against the Bills in Week 4 last year before carrying the ball 18 times for 84 yards against them in the playoffs.

I'm not sure if Henry will go Over his 78.5 rushing yards prop against a solid Bills run defense, but I expect him to eclipse his carries total in what should be a close battle between Super Bowl contenders.

Lamar Jackson is coming off a spectacular season where he threw for 41 touchdowns with just four interceptions. What makes that TD: INT ratio even more impressive is that two of those picks came off the hands of his receivers.

I'm expecting the Ravens to lean on their ground game on Sunday night, which should lead to a more conservative game plan from Todd Monken. With fewer pass attempts from Jackson, he looks like a good bet to go interception-free. 

Allen won the MVP Award but had a modest 3,731 passing yards in 17 games. He also completed just 16 passes for 127 yards against the Ravens in the playoffs. Allen was working with one of the league's weakest WR groups, but that group hasn't had much of an upgrade. The Ravens were second in the league in defensive dropback EPA after Week 9 and upgraded their secondary in the offseason by signing corner Jaire Alexander and drafting safety Malaki Starks. 

Jackson lit up scoreboards in 2024, finishing with a career high 41 passing touchdowns. In fact, Jackson passed for two or more touchdowns in all but five games last season and doubled up on TDs in both meetings with Buffalo, including the divisional round matchup. Buffalo lost rookie corner Maxwell Hairston to injury this summer and both Tre'Davious White and Christian Benford are nursing groin injuries heading into Week 1. Week 1 forecasts for Lamar sit between 1.7 and 1.8 passing touchdowns on Sunday night.

Lamar Jackson heads into Orchard Park looking to silence the Buffalo crowd — and I don’t see a 80-point gap in TD odds between him and Josh Allen. The Ravens are fully capable of moving the ball, while the Bills could struggle early with a thin group of pass-catchers. Derrick Henry will likely get most of the red-zone carries, but this is a classic spot for Lamar to keep it and beat the defense to the edge, especially if Buffalo overcommits to stopping the run. Their secondary is not great outside of Christian Benford making things even more difficult for Sean McDermott's defense to contain this offense. In a primetime MVP vs. MVP matchup, I expect Lamar to show up big. The Ravens could put up 25+ points here, and this might quietly be one of the league’s best offenses. In a high-profile shootout, Lamar is going to get his.

What better way to atone for his AFC Divisional Round drop than by going off on Sunday night at Highmark Stadium? Mark Andrews is still Lamar Jackson’s go-to target in the red zone, finishing with 11 touchdowns last season — the most among tight ends and the fourth-highest total of any skill-position player in the NFL.

These team combined for 52 points in the playoffs last January, pushing with the closing total (leaving points on the table due to Mark Andrew's butter fingers). This Week 1 matchup offers a similar score and more, given it’s not being played in sub-zero temperatures. The Ravens don’t often miss in the red zone, with Jackson and Derrick Henry providing more than enough scoring punch. The Bills weren’t that strong inside their own 20-yard line overall and allowed an average of more than 31 points in their five ATS losses of 2024. And let’s not sell Allen and Buffalo short on offense. The Ravens have a great defense, but this Bills attack can keep the chains moving. Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs, covert on third down, and cash in for a TD in the red zone is right behind Lamar & Co.

The Ravens offense is capable of trading shots with the Bills, as shown in their 35-point eruption against Buffalo last September and shootout loss in the AFC Divisional Round. The Bills defense held its own against so-so foes, but hemorrhaged points versus the elite offensive powers. I’m not convinced this stop unit is any better than 2024. Baltimore is the better two-way team and defenses tend to have an edge early on in the year, as do ground-centric playbooks. The Ravens can grind out gains, controlling tempo and clock – keeping Allen sidelined and wearing on a Buffalo defensive front running thin due to injuries and suspensions.

The first Sunday Night Football of the season is a barn burner and a potential AFC Championship pairing. The Bills got the best of the Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round last January, thanks in part to Mark Andrews’ infamous dropped 2-point convert. The 27-25 win for Buffalo pushed with the closing total of 52 points. This Week 1 number opened just shy of that Over/Under, without the intensity or deep film study of the postseason. With Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and a slew of talented weapons, I like the Over 51.5 points in this SNF showdown.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) last year.. Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the top passers in the NFL last year, averaging an impressive 243.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.. Lamar Jackson is positioned as one of the most effective QBs in the NFL last year, averaging an exceptional 8.72 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 100th percentile.. Opposing offenses have passed for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (229.0 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense last year.. Last year, the porous Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a staggering 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) last year.. With an impressive 58.1% Snap% (80th percentile) last year, Derrick Henry places as one of the RBs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. With a stellar 9.7 adjusted yards per target (93rd percentile) last year, Derrick Henry has been among the top pass-catching RBs in football.. Derrick Henry rates as one of the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an excellent 11.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 91st percentile.. The Bills defense has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (41.0) to running backs last year.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: 2nd-most in the league.. In this contest, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.0 targets.. When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 95th percentile among TEs last year, accumulating a staggering 45.0 per game.. Dalton Kincaid's 41.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for tight ends.. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: 2nd-most in the league.. The leading projections forecast James Cook to garner 2.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs.. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. With a terrific 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (75th percentile) last year, James Cook has been as one of the top running backs in the pass game in the NFL.. Last year, the weak Ravens defense has been gouged for a massive 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 4th-most in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) last year.. The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to total 7.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. Zay Flowers has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 27.0% last year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.. When it comes to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 83rd percentile among wideouts last year, totaling a remarkable 75.0 per game.. With a remarkable 61.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (83rd percentile) last year, Zay Flowers places among the top wide receivers in the league in football.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a glaring pass funnel last year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) last year.. The model projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 5.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. As it relates to air yards, Mark Andrews grades out in the towering 94th percentile among tight ends last year, totaling a staggering 44.0 per game.. Mark Andrews's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for TEs.. Mark Andrews rates as one of the best pass-game tight ends last year, averaging a terrific 40.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: 2nd-most in the league.. Khalil Shakir has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.1% last year, which places him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. With a fantastic 56.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (77th percentile) last year, Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the top WRs in the game in the NFL.. With an outstanding 80.5% Adjusted Catch% (96th percentile) last year, Khalil Shakir places as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Ravens.

At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Ravens.

At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Ravens.