For Josh Allen, last year’s MVP trophy will have done little to quench his thirst for Super Bowl glory, so buckle up for SNF fireworks as the Buffalo Bills take on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Allen sat out all of Buffalo’s preseason games for the first time in his career, but I’m still expecting a sharp start tonight, with some trademark thundering runs to keep the Baltimore defense guessing.
Take a closer look at the Bills QB’s potential impact as I dig into the Josh Allen odds — and other NFL picks — ahead of what could be a primetime thriller.
Josh Allen prop pick
Josh Allen best bet: Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Not for the first time, Josh Allen is entering a new NFL season with an emphasis on limiting the big hits he takes. But that’s easier said than done.
Allen is at his best when he’s on the move and running through tackles, and we could see plenty of that tonight against the Baltimore Ravens.
I like the Over on this line of 31.5 rushing yards for Allen here. Though there will be nothing easy against a talented Baltimore defense, he’s made a habit of running the ball well in season openers, with 36+ rushing yards in each of his last six Week 1 contests — and I see him extending that streak here.
While it’s easy to imagine Allen being dialed in from the opening drive at Highmark Stadium, the Buffalo Bills passing game may take longer to rev up. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel have both missed time during the preseason, and Keon Coleman popped up on the injury report this week.
If there’s a lack of rhythm there, it will likely translate to more improvisation from Allen, and I’m wagering on at least a few snaps where the Bills have to rely on his ability to escape the pocket and turn a blown-up play into positive yardage with his legs.
That’s the secret sauce for Buffalo. Just like opposite number Lamar Jackson, Allen is a good bet to call his own number when the game is on the line.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards
Josh Allen anytime TD
Derrick Henry Over 82.5 rushing yards
I’ll double down on Allen’s impact as a runner on SNF by taking the anytime touchdown prop, too. He ran for two scores against the Ravens in their AFC divisional round clash in January, and he’s coming off back-to-back seasons with double-digit rushing TDs.
Derrick Henry gave the Bills fits last season, piling up 283 rushing yards in his two outings against Buffalo, and I’m not convinced that the hosts will fare any better against King Henry on this SNF stage. The Baltimore battering ram ran for 1,921 yards last season, and I’ll gladly go Over while his rushing yards line sits at 82.5.
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