Washington @ Miami Picks & Props

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. This year, Tua Tagovailoa has not scored any TDs on the ground. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the league against the Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the porous Commanders defense has surrendered a whopping 2.20 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 38.2. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%. With an outstanding rate of 0.40 per game through the air (85th percentile), Deebo Samuel Sr. has been among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to wide receivers this year.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league. When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's group of LBs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an extraordinary 17.1% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, De'Von Achane stands among the pass-game running backs with the most usage near the goal line in football. When it comes to air yards, De'Von Achane grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among running backs this year, averaging a staggering 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). De'Von Achane's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 22.4.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. While Greg Dulcich has received 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Miami's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 8.6%. Greg Dulcich's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 47.9% to 71.4%. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the league against the Commanders defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With a high 25.0% Red Zone Target Share (93rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle places among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football. Jaylen Waddle has accumulated far more air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game). Jaylen Waddle's 60.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 43.8.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Zach Ertz has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among TEs. Zach Ertz has accumulated a whopping 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz rates in the 95th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 40.9 figure this year.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This year, the weak Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a whopping 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in football. When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's group of LBs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.