Vikings No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson is still trying to get on the same page as sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
That said, he saw plenty of targets on Sunday which is why my NFL picks are betting on him to take advantage of a weak Bears secondary in Week 11.
Here are my best NFL player props for Week 11 in the NFL.
NFL Week 11 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Breece Hall |
Under 55.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Bijan Robinson |
Over 72.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Justin Jefferson |
Over 71.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 11
Prop pick: Breece Hall Under 55.5 rushing yards
Breece Hall is coming off back-to-back strong performances but those came in victories against the lowly Browns and Bengals. The New York Jets are 13.5-point road underdogs against the 8-2 New England Patriots this week which should lead to a negative game script and fewer carries for Hall.
New England has been elite against the run, holding opposing running backs to a league-low 57.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.
The Pats rank fourth in defensive rush EPA and will stack the box since they won't fear a historically bad Jets passing attack under Justin Fields.
Prop pick: Bijan Robinson Over 72.5 rushing yards
The Atlanta Falcons are on a four-game skid after losing in overtime to the Colts last week. If they want to get their season back on track, they need to lean on their best player in Bijan Robinson. The Pro Bowl running back has rushed for 679 yards and 5.0 yards per carry.
Robinson rushed for 84 yards last week and this Sunday he'll face the Carolina Panthers who are 20th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They'll be missing linebacker Trevin Wallace while their best defensive lineman Derrick Brown is hindered by a knee injury.
When these division rivals previously clashed in Week 3, Robinson rushed for 72 yards on 13 carries despite Atlanta playing with a negative game script in a blowout loss. I'm expecting a closer contest here which should lead to him going Over 72.5 yards.
Prop pick: Justin Jefferson Over 71.5 receiving yards
Justin Jefferson is coming off a pair of quiet performances but the All-Pro wideout is poised for a big game in Week 11.
The Minnesota Vikings are still adjusting to new quarterback J.J. McCarthy but he's coming off a game where he threw for a career-high 248 yards and playing indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium should help with his passing efficiency.
While Jefferson was limited to 37 receiving yards on four catches last week, he saw a season-high 12 targets. Expect him to reel in more of those targets this week against a Chicago Bears defense that is vulnerable through the air.
Chicago is 26th in the league in defensive pass DVOA while allowing 160.0 receiving yards per game to wide receivers — the sixth-highest number in the league. This is a five-star prop according to EV Analytics which is projecting 88.19 yards for Jefferson.
NFL Week 11 prop betting card
- Hall u55.5 rush yards (-114)
- Robinson o72.5 rush yards (-114)
- Jefferson o71.5 rec yards (-114)
My NFL weekly props column is 26-19 this season for +4.26 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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