The NFL heads to Madrid on Sunday for a clash between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins.
Injuries have ravaged Washington's roster, and my early Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions expect Miami to take advantage.
Here are my NFL picks for this showdown in Spain on Sunday, November 16.
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Commanders vs Dolphins predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Commanders vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins -2.5
The Miami Dolphins have been wildly inconsistent this season, but they are coming off a 30-13 victory against the Buffalo Bills. They also beat the Atlanta Falcons by 24 points on the road two weeks ago, and they have a favorable matchup here.
The Washington Commanders are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five games, with four of those defeats coming by more than 20 points.
Franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels has been sidelined by an elbow injury that will likely cost him another week. With backup Marcus Mariota throwing to an injury-plagued WR corps, the Commanders won't take advantage of a weak Dolphins secondary.
Washington's defense will be without its two best corners in Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos, while top edge rusher Dorance Armstrong suffered a season-ending injury. In addition, its best defensive lineman, Daron Payne, has been suspended for throwing a punch in Sunday's blowout loss.
The Commanders have just four sacks in their last four games, and they rank dead last in the league in defensive dropback EPA. Miami's offense can move the ball when QB Tua Tagovailoa has time to operate, which he'll have on Sunday.
Early Commanders vs Dolphins total pick: Under 47.5
Mariota is a competent backup, but there's only so much he can do with Washington missing multiple receivers, including No.1 WR Terry McLaurin. The QB has thrown for less than 215 yards in all four of his starts this season, despite having a negative game script in three of those contests.
The Dolphins lost their No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill to a season-ending injury and have been reliant on short throws and running back De'Von Achane since. Tagovailoa is just 34th out of 37 qualifying passers in average intended air yards (6.6).
Miami also plays at the sixth-slowest pace in the league, averaging 28.6 seconds per snap. That slows to a sluggish 31.6 seconds/snap when leading or in neutral game situations.
With the Dolphins rarely attacking downfield and both teams relying on their rushing attacks, the Under 47.5 should cash on Sunday.
Commanders vs Dolphins odds
- Commanders vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-120)
- Commanders vs. Dolphins moneyline: Commanders +134, Dolphins -158
- Commanders vs. Dolphins Over/Under: 47.5 (-118)
How to watch Commanders vs Dolphins
- Commanders vs. Dolphins matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Madrid, Spain
- Venue: Santiago Bernabéu
- TV: NFLN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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