Seattle @ Arizona props

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -3-point underdogs. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. In this week's game, Trey McBride is expected by the model to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 8.5 targets. Trey McBride's 4.8 adjusted receptions per game this year illustrates a remarkable progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.1 rate. The Seahawks pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.3%) vs. TEs this year (77.3%).

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are expected by the projections to run just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week. The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average). Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year. Noah Fant's 18.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 24.6.

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -3-point underdogs. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Greg Dortch to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack in this game (16.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.2% in games he has played). This year, the porous Seahawks pass defense has yielded a monstrous 67.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 10th-largest rate in the league.

At the moment, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in football (57.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Arizona Cardinals. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have only 125.3 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week. James Conner has been used less as a potential target this season (41.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.5%). James Conner's play as a receiver has declined this year, accumulating a mere 1.9 adjusted catches compared to 3.5 last year. The Seahawks pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.3%) vs. RBs this year (78.3%).

The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are expected by the projections to run just 62.1 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week. The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a lowly 54.9 per game on average). Opposing teams teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year. The Seahawks O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Tyler Lockett has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Rondale Moore has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Michael Wilson has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.