Alabama vs Vanderbilt Picks & Props
ALA vs VAN Picks
NCAAF PicksThe Tide rank second nationally in opponent-adjusted net EPA per play and Vandy is in a different weight class in that regard all together at 60th. That gap matters on both sides of the ball. Vanderbilt’s defense is 54th in adjusted efficiency and allows successful plays on nearly 46% of snaps, giving Bama' ways to sustain drives without depending on deep shots from Keelon Russel
This is primarily a bet against Vanderbilt converting its possessions into touchdowns. The Commodores average 3.72 points per scoring opportunity, 90th nationally, and rank 123rd in giveaways per game. Alabama’s defense ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted EPA allowed, with its run defense allowing successful plays on 39% of attempts. That's a pretty strong resistance against a pretty average offense
Alabama’s offense ranks 13th in adjusted EPA per play, and, as mentioned, the Dores' allow successful passes on 46% of opponent dropbacks. That gives Russell a way to move the chains even if his ankle limits how much Alabama asks him to extend plays. The Tide also have the balance to finish drives on the ground. Four touchdowns and two field goals clear this team total.
A nice non-correlated boost. Vandy has allowed opponents to turn 44.5% of rushes into successful plays, while Alabama’s ground game is successful on 49.4% of its attempts. That is a useful early-down matchup for a quarterback managing an ankle injury.
ALA vs VAN Consensus Picks
61% picking Alabama
Total Picks ALA 205, VAN 130
ALA vs VAN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
VAN
J. Curtis
(QB)
u209.5 Passing Yards
205.51 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.0
DIFFERENCE
17.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o250.5 Passing Yards
255.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.8
DIFFERENCE
13.76%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o24.5 Rushing Yards
41.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.0
DIFFERENCE
27.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
VAN
M. Young
(RB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
30.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.6
DIFFERENCE
25.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
T. Brown
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
58.43 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.9
DIFFERENCE
24.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
42.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
VAN
J. Curtis
(QB)
o9.5 Rushing Yards
11.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
22.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
VAN
S. Alexander
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
33.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.7
DIFFERENCE
19.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
K. Edwards
(TE)
o17.5 Receiving Yards
29.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
26.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
M. Pritchett
(TE)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
27.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
26.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
VAN
J. Thomas
(WR)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
30.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
25.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o10.5 Receiving Yards
16.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.8
DIFFERENCE
25.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
VAN
T. Brown
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
26.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.2
DIFFERENCE
24.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
VAN
S. Alexander
(RB)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
21.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
23.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
43.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
21.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
59.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.5
DIFFERENCE
16.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
R. Coleman-Williams
(WR)
u56.5 Receiving Yards
55.81 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
-7.05%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
VAN
T. Brown
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
2.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
2.45%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
VAN
J. Thomas
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
2.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
0.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
VAN
S. Alexander
(RB)
o2.5 Receptions
2.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-0.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
VAN
J. Sherrill
(WR)
u6.5 Receptions
6.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
-1.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
VAN
J. Curtis
(QB)
u19.5 Completions
18.73 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
8.13%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 in Commodores last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Crimson Tide last 7 games in November.
Over is 6-1 in Commodores last 7 games as a home favorite.
Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Over is 7-1 in Commodores last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-1-1 in Commodores last 7 games as a home underdog.
ROI Trends
ALA vs VAN Top User Picks
'Makanikeoe' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
Makanikeoe is #10 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.
'wiseguy43' is picking Vanderbilt to cover (+19.5)
wiseguy43 is #2 on picking games that Vanderbilt is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.
'whooped' is picking Vanderbilt to cover (+16.5)
whooped is #3 on picking games that Vanderbilt is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'bonny2bag' is picking Vanderbilt to cover (+16.5)
bonny2bag is #4 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'BillyJack' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
BillyJack is #4 on picking games that Vanderbilt is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'DIEASU' is picking Vanderbilt to cover (+18.5)
DIEASU is #5 on picking games that Vanderbilt is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'puntpat' is picking Alabama to cover (-17.5)
puntpat is #5 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (6-3-0) and +4800 units on the season.
'kingjames5' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
kingjames5 is #8 on picking games that Vanderbilt is in with a record of (5-2-0) and +3850 units on the season.
'Sandsaver727' is picking Alabama to cover (-16.5)
Sandsaver727 is #9 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (6-2-0) and +4300 units on the season.