Oklahoma vs Florida Picks & Props
OKLA vs FLA Picks
NCAAF PicksI'm laying Florida at -7 or better. Oklahoma's offense is broken, ranking 136th in both EPA per play and success rate on standard downs, and has a first-time play-caller and an uncertain QB position. Buy low on Florida, which has lost three of four games, but to teams with a combined record of 19-5.
Jon Sumrall will have his team ready to rock from the opening kickoff in a very winnable home game against a down opponent that has already had its dreams crushed. The Gators have covered the first half spread in four of their last six games at the Swamp.
The Sooners can't run the ball (136th in EPA per rush), are bad up front (128th in line yards), and have three starting linemen listed on the availability report. The Gators' disruptive defensive front (19th in front seven havoc) can control this contest, but their offense (124th in success rate since Week 5) isn't reliable for fireworks.
If Oklahoma's offense stalls out, as it typically does, then the Gators will control this game from the jump and eventually establish margin. Florida prefers a slow tempo and will be happy to sit on a lead.
OKLA vs FLA Consensus Picks
OKLA vs FLA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
J. Mateer
(QB)
o199.5 Passing Yards
208.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.3
DIFFERENCE
18.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
FLA
T. Jones Jr.
(QB)
o203.5 Passing Yards
210.36 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
18.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
OKLA
L. Avant
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
39.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.3
DIFFERENCE
26.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
FLA
J. Baugh
(RB)
o87.5 Rushing Yards
93.06 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.6
DIFFERENCE
16.64%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
J. Mateer
(QB)
o19.5 Rushing Yards
20.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
12.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OKLA
I. Sategna III
(WR)
o51.5 Receiving Yards
72.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+21.4
DIFFERENCE
26.11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
D. Wilson
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
40.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
21.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OKLA
R. Beers
(TE)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
42.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
21.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
FLA
E. Singleton Jr.
(WR)
u39.5 Receiving Yards
34.42 UNDER
PROJECTION
-5.1
DIFFERENCE
20.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
OKLA
L. Avant
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
17.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
OKLA
R. Beers
(TE)
u3.5 Receptions
3.46 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
8.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
OKLA
I. Sategna III
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
6.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
FLA
L. Harpring
(TE)
o0.5 Receptions
1.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-0.89%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-0 in Gators last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Gators are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Sooners last 5 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog.