Virginia Tech vs SMU Picks & Props
VT vs SMU Picks
NCAAF PicksPlay the SMU Mustangs to cover -5.5 at 54% or less. SMU has a more reliable path to multiple touchdown drives than the Virginia Tech Hokies. SMU succeeds on 50.4% of offensive snaps, ninth nationally, and QB Kevin Jennings generates 0.31 EPA per dropback. Tech’s fifth-ranked havoc rate can wreck a possession, but it still allows successful plays on 43.4% of snaps.
SMU’s defense allows 4.58 points per opponent scoring opportunity, 112th nationally. That gives Ethan Grunkemeyer and Tech a route to points even if they cannot control the game. Tech has thrown effectively enough to threaten downfield, while SMU’s defense has been better at preventing long drives than finishing stops once opponents cross the 40. On the other side, the Mustangs produce explosive plays on 9.9% of snaps, eighth nationally
I like the Mustangs to score in this matchup at a high clip and I'd play this to 60%. Virginia Tech’s havoc is a legitimate obstacle, but SMU has been unusually good at rescuing drives: it ranks second nationally with 0.57 EPA per play on third and fourth down. Jennings can punish a defense that gets aggressive without ending the possession and he's hard to do that against
I like this combo. James Franklin said the bye should bring offensive linemen Montavious Cunningham and Brody Meadows back. Better protection gives Grunkemeyer more time to find Que’Sean Brown and makes 24 Virginia Tech points plausible without requiring a road win.
VT vs SMU Consensus Picks
VT vs SMU Props
Recent Form Trends
Under is 6-0 in Hokies last 6 games as a road underdog.
Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Mustangs last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Mustangs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 8-1 in Hokies last 9 road games.
Under is 9-1 in Hokies last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Hokies last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.