North Carolina vs Duke Picks & Props
UNC vs DUKE Picks
NCAAF Picks
u21.5 Team Total (-108)
Even in its wins, the North Carolina Tar Heels offense has been less than explosive, putting up 21 or fewer points in three of its first five contests this season. Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils have allowed a total of 17 points in their three home games this year. I'm backing the Under on UNC at up to 60% if the team total stays above 21 points.
o46.5 (-111)
The competitive games played by these teams this season have tended to be higher scoring that expected. the Duke Blue Devils have hit the Over in three of their last four games, including against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and the Illinois Fighting Illini, while the North Carolina Tar Heels got above this total against both the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Clemson Tigers. I'm backing the Over at up to 55% if the total stays at 47.5 or lower.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are averaging 23.4 ppg and have put up just 330.4 yards of offense per game. Opponents are scoring just 14.4 ppg against the Duke Blue Devils, who havn't lost a game at home since last November. I'm taking Duke to cover at up to 3.5 points.
Along with my spread and total picks, I'm also taking Duke to win the first half outright to complete a three-leg combo for this game. While North Carolina has clearly improved this season, this should still be a relatively straightforward home win for the Blue Devils, with Duke taking a halftime lead against its biggest rivals.
UNC vs DUKE Consensus Picks
UNC vs DUKE Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
DUKE
W. Eget
(QB)
o189.5 Passing Yards
214.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+25.4
DIFFERENCE
25.39%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
u204.5 Passing Yards
203.69 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.8
DIFFERENCE
10.98%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
57.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.1
DIFFERENCE
23.16%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Thurman
(TE)
o43.5 Receiving Yards
55.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.0
DIFFERENCE
25.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
DUKE
J. Hasley
(TE)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
44.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
23.14%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Shipp
(WR)
o75.5 Receiving Yards
79.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
19.39%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
T. Kekahuna
(WR)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
25.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-10.4%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Tar Heels last 5 games as a favorite.
Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Tar Heels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Over is 6-1 in Blue Devils last 7 games as an underdog.
Over is 7-0 in Blue Devils last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Blue Devils are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Blue Devils are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 9-1-1 in Tar Heels last 11 games following a ATS win.
ROI Trends
Check back shortly to see trends for each team.