UCLA vs Oregon Picks & Props
UCLA vs ORE Picks
NCAAF PicksOregon -3.5 in the first quarter boosts the combo payout without conflicting with UCLA full game. The Bruins have covered just three of their last 12 first-quarter spreads, while Oregon could script early shots before UCLA settles in.
Under 58.5 is playable down to 57.5. UCLA should control pace with its rushing attack, while Oregon struggles on late downs and the Bruins have a below-average red-zone touchdown rate, creating plenty of paths to stalled drives and field goals.
UCLA +11.5 is playable down to +10.5. The Bruins own a major rushing matchup advantage on both sides of the ball, while Oregon is without Dante Moore. Bob Chesney also gets an extra week to prepare for the Ducks.
I don't think Dylan Raiola is that big of a downgrade from Dante Moore. He delivered in a very high-pressure situation against USC, so I think Oregon's offense remains strong. Their games have gone Over by an average of 11 points per game. On the UCLA side, they haven't haven't faced any good offenses yet, so their defense could be in for a rude awakening but their offense should find success.
Dylan Raiola is the best backup quarterback in the country. He was a solid starter at Nebraska for two years. Two weeks ago, he came off the bench after Moore's injury and led Oregon to a 41-27 win at USC. It was a high-pressure game the Ducks desperately needed, and Raiola had a 98.8 QBR!
While it has been a great start for UCLA and new head coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins have not played a team currently in the Top 60 of my power ratings. Most of their opponents are way down this year, including California, San Diego State, and Maryland. That's inflating their metrics.
UCLA has all the makings of a team that can win this game outright. Yes, Dylan Raiola filled Dante Moore's shoes nicely against USC, but UCLA's defense will provide much more resistance, ranking 15th in opponent yards per play compared to USC's 87th. On the other side of the ball, UCLA leads the nation in yards per carry and sits fourth in yards per play. Take the points.
Oregon can start fast before UCLA settles in behind its rushing advantage. A slower game from there supports the Under and gives the Bruins a better chance to stay within double digits.
UCLA vs ORE Consensus Picks
54% picking UCLA
Total Picks UCLA 271, ORE 228
UCLA vs ORE Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o185.5 Passing Yards
201.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.8
DIFFERENCE
24.69%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
39.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ORE
J. Davison
(RB)
o60.5 Rushing Yards
65.11 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
18.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ORE
D. Hill Jr.
(RB)
o49.5 Rushing Yards
60.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.1
DIFFERENCE
15.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
u37.5 Rushing Yards
34.56 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.9
DIFFERENCE
14.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
50.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.2
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o1.5 Receiving Yards
9.97 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
26.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORE
J. Davison
(RB)
o7.5 Receiving Yards
13.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.1
DIFFERENCE
25.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o11.5 Receiving Yards
19.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.2
DIFFERENCE
25.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o30.5 Receiving Yards
40.93 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.4
DIFFERENCE
25.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
L. Ellis
(WR)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
27.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.5
DIFFERENCE
23.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
D. Moore
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
55.76 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.3
DIFFERENCE
22.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
E. Stewart
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
65.48 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.0
DIFFERENCE
21.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORE
M. Hampton
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
41.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
18.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORE
D. Hill Jr.
(RB)
o22.5 Receiving Yards
24.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
8.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ORE
J. Johnson
(TE)
o56.5 Receiving Yards
58.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
7.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
15.84%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o0.5 Receptions
1.18 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
9.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
B. Rowe Jr.
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
3.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
7.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
2.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
2.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ORE
J. Johnson
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
4.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-2.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
D. Moore
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-7.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
L. Ellis
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
1.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-11.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o6.5 Carries
7.58 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
13.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o10.5 Carries
11.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
10.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ORE
D. Raiola
(QB)
u23.5 Completions
22.55 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
11.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
N. Iamaleava
(QB)
o16.5 Completions
16.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.08%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 home games.
Under is 6-1 in Bruins last 7 games as a road favorite.
Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Ducks last 4 games as a home underdog.
Bruins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
ROI Trends
UCLA vs ORE Top User Picks
'charro23' is picking Oregon to cover (-11.5)
charro23 is #1 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.
'wallyswahoos' is picking Oregon to cover (-11.5)
wallyswahoos is #2 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.
'DIEASU' is picking UCLA to cover (+11.5)
DIEASU is #3 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +4000 units on the season.
'Foodbank' is picking UCLA to cover (+11.5)
Foodbank is #3 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'PSL21' is picking UCLA to cover (+11.5)
PSL21 is #4 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'mrmrsbears' is picking UCLA to cover (+11.5)
mrmrsbears is #5 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
'Bassboy7276' is picking UCLA to cover (+11.5)
Bassboy7276 is #6 on picking games that Oregon is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'SlicerDicer' is picking Oregon to cover (-11.5)
SlicerDicer is #6 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.