Arch Manning Rushing Yards Props • Texas
A. Manning
quarterback QB • Texas
Texas @ Mississippi State Picks & Props
TEX vs MSST Picks
NCAAF Picks
Game Prop
u27.5 Team Total (-125)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Arch Manning hasn't handled road environments very well. He led just three scoring drives at Florida in 13 possessions, and should've lost at Kentucky last week as he completed just 12 of 27 passes.
He's facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks sixth in interceptions, and seventh in interception rate against. The Bulldogs also love to run the ball, which should shorten the number of possessions available to both teams.
Texas will need to run the ball to help Manning, but the Longhorns rank 116th in late-down success, 105th in available yards, and 110th in EPA/pass. And the Longhorns have not scored 24 points in four games against power conference foes.
Manning will struggle with the incessant cowbell ringing and Texas will not get to 28 points.
MoneyLine
MSST (+220)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Unlike Bruce Dickinson, the last thing Arch Manning needs is more cowbell. But the Mississippi State faithful are gonna give him all he can handle.
Manning routinely missed wide-open throws against a Kentucky secondary that has given up big pass plays often this season. And he's looked rattled in both of his SEC road starts.
The Bulldogs have the best rushing success rate of any team in the nation, and they've nearly gotten that "big" win against both Florida and Tennessee. They fell just short over the weekend, but the cowbells will get to Manning and they'll get the win on Saturday.
TD Passes
Arch Manning u1.5 TD Passes (-120)
Projection 1.486 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Passing Yards
BS
Blake Shapen u204.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 189.9434 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Passing Yards
Arch Manning u211.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 209.6325 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receiving Yards
AE
Anthony Evans III o51.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Projection 73.6551 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
PL
Parker Livingstone o25.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 38.6102 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
BT
Brenen Thompson o46.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 60.4312 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
RW
Ryan Wingo o44.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 51.3805 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
DM
DeAndre Moore Jr. o38.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Projection 41.2938 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Rushing Yards
Arch Manning o23.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 30.484 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
TEX vs MSST Consensus Picks
62% picking MS State
Total Picks TEX 389, MSST 647
TEX vs MSST Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
TEX vs MSST Trends
Texas Trends
Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.65 Units / 1% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Texas has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 59% ROI)
Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Over
Under
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.45 Units / 5% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Texas have only covered the Spread in 5 of their last 16 games (-7.10 Units / -40% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Texas has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 7 games (-6.15 Units / -75% ROI)
Texas has only hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 16 games (-6.00 Units / -34% ROI)
Over
Under
Texas has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 7 away games (-4.05 Units / -48% ROI)
Over
Under
Texas has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 16 games (-3.45 Units / -19% ROI)
Over
Under
Mississippi State Trends
Mississippi State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 8% ROI)
TEX
MSST
Mississippi State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Over
Under
Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
Over
Under
Mississippi State has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 5 games (-3.82 Units / -63% ROI)
Mississippi State has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 2 of their last 7 games at home (-3.80 Units / -47% ROI)
Over
Under
Mississippi State has only hit the Game Total Under in 2 of their last 7 games at home (-3.50 Units / -45% ROI)
Over
Under
Mississippi State has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 12 games (-2.65 Units / -19% ROI)
Over
Under
TEX vs MSST Top User Picks
Texas Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | doomsday07 | 9-0-1 | +7300 |
| 2 | sportsking157 | 7-2-1 | +5750 |
| 3 | Enelra18 | 8-1-1 | +5200 |
| 4 | alayne89 | 8-1-1 | +4850 |
| 5 | Patzer24 | 7-2-1 | +4800 |
| 6 | gutterrat69 | 7-3-0 | +4800 |
| 7 | peachiee2023 | 8-2-0 | +4750 |
| 8 | redsox99 | 8-1-1 | +4350 |
| 9 | gap824 | 7-2-1 | +4350 |
| 10 | billdo | 3-5-2 | +4250 |
| All Longhorns Money Leaders | |||
MS State Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Bulldogs Money Leaders | |||