Ty Simpson Pas and Rus Yards Props • Alabama
T. Simpson
quarterback QB • Alabama
Tennessee @ Alabama Picks & Props
TENN vs ALA Picks
NCAAF Picks
Score a Touchdown
DB
DeSean Bishop Score a Touchdown (Yes: +135)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Bishop is running well at the moment, averaging better than eight yards a carry over his last three games. And Alabama have given up eight rushing touchdowns in five games against Power 5 opponents.
Alabama ranks 49th in tackling grade per PFF, and in the Bottom 25% nationally in explosive runs allowed. Bishop has a tendency to force missed tackles, and averaged over 4.5 yards after contact against both Mississippi State and Arkansas.
Bishop also had five breakaway runs last week against the Hogs. I like him to get a few here and I’ll back him to find paydirt for the fourth straight game.
Rushing Yards
TS
Ty Simpson u9.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Alabama has allowed Ty Simpson to get hit of late, surrendering four sacks in each of the last two SEC contests. The Tide rank 92nd nationally in sacks allowed per game.
Tennessee's pass rush is first nationally with 4.33 sacks per game, but the Vols have upped the production with 15 over the course of three conference outings. Those sacks have cost opposing quarterbacks better than five yards per sack.
Simpson's last two games have seen him pick up just one yard in total, as he lost six yards on nine carries against Vanderbilt. I'm not going to be surprised to see another negative-yardage output here, but I seriously doubt he reaches double-digits against this pass rush.
Score a Touchdown
IH
Isaiah Horton Score a Touchdown (Yes: +145)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Horton's size makes him a matchup problem for many defenses. But even more for a Tennessee defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns in 23 red zone visits.
He's become the go-to receiver inside the 20 for Ty Simpson, is third in targets, and leads the stellar Alabama receiving corps with 1.13 EPA/play.
Horton has found the endzone in four of his last five games, and will do so against a Volunteer defense that has surrendered seven passing scores in three SEC contests.
Game Prop
o34.5 Team Total (-105)
Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst
Alabama's passing offence is starting to find its rhythm with Ty Simpson and his trio of receivers. He has now thrown for 1,678 yards with a 70% completion rate with 16 touchdowns compared to just one interception. Simpson and Bama lead the nation in EPA per dropback and face a Tennessee defense that ranks 75th in success rate, which has surrendered 31 or more points in three straight conference games.
Receptions
MK
Miles Kitselman u3.5 Receptions (-102)
Projection 3.1958 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receptions
GB
Germie Bernard u5.5 Receptions (-146)
Projection 4.4645 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receptions
IH
Isaiah Horton u4.5 Receptions (-170)
Projection 3.4213 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Receptions
MM
Mike Matthews u3.5 Receptions (-102)
Projection 3.4682 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
TD Passes
TS
Ty Simpson u2.5 TD Passes (-125)
Projection 2.1491 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
TD Passes
JA
Joey Aguilar u1.5 TD Passes (-154)
Projection 1.2941 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Passing Yards
JA
Joey Aguilar u237.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 212.9344 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Passing Yards
TS
Ty Simpson u290.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Projection 270.1645 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
JM
Jam Miller o11.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 19.9156 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Receiving Yards
BS
Braylon Staley o45.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 56.4601 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
TENN vs ALA Consensus Picks
More Consensus Consensus PicksTENN vs ALA Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Joey Aguilar Pas and Rus Yards Props • Tennessee
J. Aguilar
quarterback QB • Tennessee
TENN vs ALA Trends
Tennessee Trends
Tennessee has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Tennessee has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Tennessee has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+1.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has only hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 13 games (-8.00 Units / -56% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 13 games (-5.40 Units / -35% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 6 games (-4.90 Units / -70% ROI)
Tennessee has not hit the 1H Game Total Under in any of their last 4 away games (-4.60 Units / -100% ROI)
Over
Under
Tennessee has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (-3.35 Units / -0% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama Trends
Alabama has hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama have covered the Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Over
Under
Alabama has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 7% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Over
Under
Alabama has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Over
Under
Alabama has only hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (-14.00 Units / -28% ROI)
TENN
ALA
Alabama has only hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 13 games (-5.90 Units / -41% ROI)
Over
Under
Alabama has not hit the Team Total Over in any of their last 3 games (-3.65 Units / -100% ROI)
Alabama has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 1 of their last 5 games at home (-3.60 Units / -63% ROI)
Over
Under
Alabama has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 1 of their last 5 games at home (-3.35 Units / -61% ROI)
Over
Under
TENN vs ALA Top User Picks
More Picks
'CastlemontDB91' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
CastlemontDB91 is #1 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'oneg' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
oneg is #10 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'MT15' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
MT15 is #10 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (1-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'bctwitty' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
bctwitty is #2 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'mjboxer' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
mjboxer is #3 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'Suzguy123' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
Suzguy123 is #4 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'Lans' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
Lans is #5 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'april420' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
april420 is #5 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3450 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'Ollywood' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
Ollywood is #6 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3400 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'chris789' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
chris789 is #7 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2900 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'miacity' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
miacity is #8 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +2900 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'bostonutah' is picking Alabama to cover (-8.0)
bostonutah is #8 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (6-0-0) and +3400 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA
'Frognkat' is picking Tennessee to cover (+8.0)
Frognkat is #9 on picking games that Tennessee is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.
Spread
TENN
ALA