Phoenix @ Las Vegas Picks & Props

With some of her teammates struggling, Young went 4-for-11 from downtown in Tuesday’s win, and she’s nailed this Over in eight of her past 12 contests. She also had 2+ triples in three of the four meetings with the Mercury this year.

Sabally has gone past the 20-point mark in four of her last five outings, and she scored 68 points across the final three games against the Lynx. She stands out as a major matchup problem here for the Aces, who don’t really have a wing stopper capable of competing with Sabally’s size and outside shooting.

Bonner has hauled in 6+ rebounds in five of her last six games, with 8+ boards in three of those outings, and it’s easy to see Phoenix leaning on the know-how of a Thomas-Bonner frontcourt for long stretches, especially to settle the nerves early in this series.

Satou Sabally brings one thing the Las Vegas Aces can’t ignore: a clear size advantage. That mismatch could cause problems for the home team in Game 1 — and potentially throughout the entire series. Her length creates the space she needs to get off clean looks from deep, where she’s shooting 34.0% in the playoffs. With Vegas lacking a solid counter for her perimeter game, expect Sabally to hit the Over on this prop from beyond the arc.

Alyssa Thomas has already recorded three double-doubles in this year’s playoffs, and she’s in a strong position to notch her fourth in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. The Mercury enter the series with a slight rest advantage over the Las Vegas Aces, who had to battle through a full five-game series against the Fever. Thomas is coming off her most efficient outing yet — shooting 61.1 percent from the field in Game 4 of the semifinals against the Lynx — and she’s primed to set the tone early. I’m backing her to be the catalyst behind a statement win for Phoenix on the road.

Las Vegas went five games with a Fever team missing Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson. Key scorer Kelsey Mitchell left Game 5 early, and Aliyah Boston fouled out. The Aces’ vulnerabilities were on display in their series against Indiana, and particularly in the closeout contest.