The Phoenix Mercury knocked off the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in Game 4 on Sunday, but it took OT against an injury-riddled Indiana Fever team in Game 5 for the Las Vegas Aces to advance to the Finals.
The No. 2 seed Aces host the No. 4 seed Mercury in Game 1 on Friday to tip off the 2025 WNBA Finals.
My Mercury vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks expect Phoenix to keep things tight on the road while stars Alyssa Thomas and A’ja Wilson do battle.
Mercury vs Aces predictions
My Mercury vs Aces best bet: Mercury +3 (-105 at bet365)
The Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces have been stellar in the playoffs, and fans will be treated to a matchup of an unstoppable object and an immovable force.
The unstoppable Aces scoring attack sports a 108.9 offensive rating in the postseason, best in the W. The immovable Mercury defense boasts a 92.2 defensive rating, also tops in the Association.
Something has to give in Game 1.
The Aces have had the Mercury’s number this season, winning and covering in three of four matchups in the regular season. The playoffs are a whole different ballgame, however, and based on how both teams have performed, I’m taking Phoenix to cover.
Las Vegas went five games with a Fever team missing Caitlin Clark, Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson. Key scorer Kelsey Mitchell left Game 5 early, and Aliyah Boston fouled out. The Aces’ vulnerabilities were on display in their series against Indiana, and particularly in the closeout contest.
In a nearly even matchup, I’ll take the stout defensive team in Phoenix, which has had all week to rest after closing out the Lynx on Sunday. They’ll bring an underdog mentality, fierce competitiveness, and strong confidence into Michelob Ultra Arena.
Mercury vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Mercury +3
Alyssa Thomas Over 34.5 points + rebounds + assists
A’ja Wilson Over 10.5 rebounds
Alyssa Thomas has done it all for Phoenix this season, racking up triple-doubles regularly while stuffing the stat sheet each and every night.
In two games at Las Vegas, she averaged 33.5 PRA, finishing with 33 and 34. She hit the Over on this line in three straight playoff games, and I expect her to extend that streak in Game 1.
A'ja Wilson has finished with single-digit rebounds in each of her last four games, but she’s in a great spot against a familiar opponent. In three matchups with Phoenix this season, Wilson averaged 15.7 boards and pulled down at least 11 in all of them.
Expect her to be aggressive on the glass in Game 1.
Mercury vs Aces odds
Mercury vs Aces live odds
Mercury vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix +3 | Las Vegas -3
- Moneyline: Phoenix +121 | Las Vegas -148
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Mercury vs Aces trend
Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in the 2025 playoffs. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Aces
| Location | Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Friday, October 3, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV |
ESPN |
Mercury vs Aces latest injuries
Mercury: None.
Aces: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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