Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 5, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
At 27-18, the Sixers sport the second-best road record ATS, while the Knicks are a league-best 29-14 ATS at home. The Knicks may have the advantage of rest, but the Sixers are in a groove and have played the Knicks well over the last two seasons. Philly is 4-1 ATS across its last five games at Madison Square Garden.
The 76ers have hit the Over in two of their last four, and the Knicks have reached that mark in three of their last four. Playoff basketball tends to slow down with lower scoring totals, but the Sixers’ offense is top-5 with Embiid available, and New York averaged 133 points per game across its last two contests.
Embiid only has seven career triple-doubles in the regular season, but one of them came this year in just 38 appearances. The big man has one career playoff triple-double that he recorded in his last postseason berth in 2023-24. He’s averaged nine boards and seven dimes this postseason, and his playmaking abilities could lead to a monster night in the box score.
Embiid’s triple-double odds are long, and we can balance them out with Towns’ short double-double odds. Towns was one of the Association’s top rebounders, and he led the league with 56 double-doubles in 75 games.
New York demolished Atlanta in its last game out, but don’t let that annihilation of the Hawks sway your opinion off the visiting team. The Sixers completed a rare comeback against a talented team on the road, and they’ll be feeling themselves as they head into Game 1 against a team that eliminated them in six games the last time they met in the playoffs.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Devin Vassell o12.5 Points Scored (-111)
The Spurs roll out a smaller lineup and with the injuries to the Minnesota backcourt, San Antonio will try to push pace and put the Timberwolves on their heels. Devin Vassell thrives in the open floor and is one of the Spurs’ best fastbreak attackers. Player models for Vassell all sit north of his scoring total of 12.5 O/U, ranging from 13.0 to a ceiling of 15.0 points. My numbers boils down to 14.3 points tonight.
Jaden McDaniels o2.5 Total Assists (-105)
Minnesota was able to attack the rim with the Nuggets missing Aaron Gordon, sending Daniels’ touches through the roof, but now he becomes more of a drive-and-kick facilitator. He posted assist totals of five, three, and one in three regular season matchups with the Spurs and finished with three assists in all but one of the six games versus Denver in Round 1. His assists forecasts for Game 1 aren’t bullshit on Daniels distributing, ranging from 1.7 to a couple projections at 2.9. However, with the adjustments the T-Wolves must make on offense and those missing bodies from the backcourt, I’m on the high side of Daniels’ dimes tonight.
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CLE
@
DET
Tue, May 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Jarrett Allen u7.5 Total Rebounds (+100)
Jarrett Allen’s round-one numbers were inflated by two astounding performances. In the other five games, failed to clear this very modest rebounding prop. The Cleveland Cavaliers ranked only No. 11 in the NBA following the All-Star Break in defensive rebounding percentage, very notable against the Detroit Pistons, the No. 3 offensive rebounding team in that time
Perhaps it should be considered impressive. Despite grabbing at least four offensive rebounds in five of the seven games in the first round, Jalen Duren scored more than 12 points just once, when he topped out at 15 points in Game 7. He is not turning those boards into points, creating value in a rather counterintuitive same-game parlay.
LAL
@
OKC
Tue, May 5 • 8:30 PM ET
OKC -15.5 (-110)
They met four times this season. The Thunder covered the spread in each game by an average of 19 points compared to bookmakers’ expectations.
The Lakers fell short of their team total in three of the four meetings by an average of 11.6 points even when including the sole Team Total Over, which came by two points.
JJ Redick will be smart to preserve any massive game from James for when it is within reach. Look at Game 4 of last round: The Lakers lost by 19 and trailed by more than that. Related: James played just 33 minutes and scored only 10 points.
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