Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 4, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Joel Embiid o40.5 Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-112)
Joel Embiid failed to hit 41 PRA in each of his first nine games, but he hit that number in 20 of his next 33, including the playoffs. Over his last 33 appearances, Embiid has averaged 42.5 PRA. Embiid has averaged a healthy 44 PRA in the playoffs this season, hitting the Over on this combo line in three of four games.
The big man has averaged 39.1 PRA in 63 career playoff games, including a 49.5 average in his lone, six-game series against the Knicks. Embiid has found regular-season success against New York, too.
At 27-18, the Sixers sport the second-best road record ATS, while the Knicks are a league-best 29-14 ATS at home. The Knicks may have the advantage of rest, but the Sixers are in a groove and have played the Knicks well over the last two seasons. Philly is 4-1 ATS across its last five games at Madison Square Garden.
The 76ers have hit the Over in two of their last four, and the Knicks have reached that mark in three of their last four. Playoff basketball tends to slow down with lower scoring totals, but the Sixers’ offense is top-5 with Embiid available, and New York averaged 133 points per game across its last two contests.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Rudy Gobert u10.5 Total Rebounds (+102)
Victor Wembanyama can camp out in the paint on defense when Gobert is in the game, stifling any Minnesota drives. Without their two best shooters, the Timberwolves need some space inside. Expect more five-out lineups from Minnesota with Julius Randle the primary defender on Wembanyama.
If Randle hits a couple 3-pointers, Minnesota will suddenly have a viable offensive plan against the Defensive Player of The Year. And while Randle is a streaky shooter, he did hit multiple 3-pointers in three of the six games against the Nuggets.
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