NBA Picks

Desmond Bane is trading at -120 for the over 3.5 assists, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -230. Bane is averaging 9.3 potential assists over his last three games, which is a strong indicator of playmaking volume when the line is set at just 3.5. He’s facing a Mavericks team that lacks a true point-of-attack defender to slow him down. With how well he’s been shooting the ball lately, Dallas will need to stay attached and chase him around screens to limit his three-point looks. That should open up opportunities for Bane to put the ball on the floor, get into the lane, and create advantages, allowing him to generate assists against a defense that has been slow to rotate this season.

Orlando’s defense has held opponents to under 110 points in five of their last seven and will keep the Mavs offense in check tonight. 

Keyonte George has cashed the Over in back-to-back games with ease. On Monday, George put together a 36-point game against the Nuggets in a tight loss. The Jazz then fell by just four points on Wednesday evening versus the 76ers, but George put his best foot forward, balling out for 30. The Wizards are in the gutter of the East and sit 29th in defensive rating. George will go off again. 

The Brooklyn Nets have been the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league when playing away from home this year in regard to three-point attempts.. The Miami Heat have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Brooklyn Nets.

The Miami Heat have played at the fastest pace in the league this year.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 2nd-best in in the league with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Gui Santos has tallied 16.2 points per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 9.2 higher than he's tallied in all games this season on the road.. The 8th-most up-tempo pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. The Golden State Warriors check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).. This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) against the Houston Rockets, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

The Rockets are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 8th-most up-tempo pace road team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Warriors).. The Houston Rockets have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Spurs have been the highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.. The Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.

There’s a lot to like about this Immanuel Quickley points prop on Thursday, whether it’s the price, the matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves, or the potential impact of the injury report. The Over 17.5 points is trading at -105, while I price it closer to -170. We all know Rudy Gobert is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but he achieves much of that by playing a deep drop coverage that takes away scoring opportunities for slashers. That isn’t really Quickley’s game. He’s very comfortable dribbling into rhythm three-pointers or pulling up for floaters in the lane before reaching the rim protector. Both of those shots should be available based on the way Gobert defends. Quickley could also get a boost if Brandon Ingram, who is currently questionable with an injury, ends up sitting. My price assumes Ingram plays, but if he’s ruled out, Quickley’s usage would naturally increase.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will likely see a decline in plays today from squaring off against the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play road team in the league over the last 20 games (the Raptors).

The Chicago Bulls will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).. The Bulls rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

The Chicago Bulls will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Suns).. The Bulls rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

The Pelicans check in as the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year.

The Pelicans have played at the 4th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise plays for the Sacramento Kings.. The Kings have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup vs. New Orleans may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a whopping 3.3 free throws per game over the last 19 games when the Pelicans are on the road (8th-most in the league).

Austin Reaves is trading at -125 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m comfortable attacking as I price it closer to -195. With the Nuggets missing Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon, they simply don’t have enough defensive options to handle the trio of LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Austin Reaves. Christian Braun will likely draw the primary assignment on Doncic as Denver’s top perimeter defender, which leaves the Nuggets without many reliable options to slow down Reaves. That creates a clear advantage for him, especially when he’s working off Doncic. When defenses pressure Doncic, Reaves becomes the natural release valve, allowing him to attack weaker defenders in space. Given the limited defensive personnel Denver will have available Thursday, the matchup dynamics set up very well for Reaves to find scoring opportunities.

The Lakers have prevailed in three of their last four games against the Nuggets, and with Denver still missing power forward Aaron Gordon, I like L.A. to grind out a win at Ball Arena.