NBA Picks

Alperen Sengun is trading at -124 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m comfortable hitting, as I price it closer to -210. This is the Rockets’ fourth game in six days, and Kevin Durant has logged 37+ minutes in each of the last two games, while Houston enters as a 15.5-point favorite against the Wizards. This spot sets up perfectly for a Sengun game. The Rockets can afford to dial back Durant’s minutes, and Sengun draws a favorable matchup against a Wizards frontcourt starting Tristan Vukcevic at center, with very little size behind him off the bench beyond Will Riley. Washington’s defense is young and struggles with rotations and screen communication, which should leave Sengun rolling to the rim through an empty paint repeatedly.

Kevin Durant just torched the Magic for 40 last week, and then he went off for another 32 points on Saturday night against the Heat. Durant is averaging 28 PPG on the road this season, which is just above his season average of 26.2 points. 

With Giannis Antetokounmpo in and Jaylen Brown out, this line has jumped all over the place. But the Bucks were struggling before Giannis' latest stint on the sidelines, ranking 24th in net rating, while the Celtics are playing great ball and have proven they can play when star players go down. Boston ranks second in net rating and is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.

The Boston Celtics rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

Not only does this matchup with the Jazz set the table for a much-needed victory (won by 23 at Utah in December) but there’s a shot Aaron Gordon gets back on the court. Utah has lost five in a row by an average of more than 13 points with foes enjoying 51% success from the floor in that span. That’ll kick start the Nuggets’ top-tier offense.

Denver has dominated this matchup, winning seven straight against Utah by an average of 21.7 points while covering every time. This sets up as a prime get-right spot. The Nuggets are off back-to-back losses to OKC and Minnesota and don’t play again until Thursday, so there’s no excuse for anything less than a full-effort response. They’ve bounced back with authority lately, beating Boston by 17 and Portland by 54. Meanwhile, Utah has dropped five straight, four by double digits, and ranks 26th in net rating since the break.

The Clippers have won three of their last four road games, with those victories coming against some good teams. Meanwhile, the Warriors are still without Stephen Curry and have dropped three of four at the Chase Center.

Brook Lopez is trading at -110 for over 9.5 points, and that’s a number worth backing, as I price it closer to -180. While it’s the second night of a back-to-back for the aging veteran, we still have a solid edge on this prop even after accounting for a potential reduction in minutes due to the scheduling spot. Darius Garland is expected to make his Clippers debut on Monday, and he’s exactly the type of pick-and-roll ball handler who can consistently create high-quality looks for Lopez. While Garland’s presence may slightly lower Lopez’s usage, it should significantly improve his shot quality. Additionally, the Warriors often deploy an undersized, switch-heavy defense, which should allow Lopez to take advantage of favorable matchups in the paint and on the perimeter.