NBA Picks

In terms of offense, the Wizards's lackluster 110.1 points per game away from their home court comes in as the 5th-weakest in the league this year.. The Wizards will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 4th-slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Orlando Magic).

The 4th-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Magic.. The Orlando Magic have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court.

Cleveland will lean on its own elite defense to compete. These head-to-head battles usually turn into low-scoring wars, which is why the Under is the play tonight.

As it relates to three-point attempts, the 7th-most aggressive team in the NBA as the away team this year has been the Nets.. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a positive matchup.. The Heat have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should boost plays for the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Miami is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.4 foul shots per game this year when the Heat have the home court advantage (9th-most in the league).

The 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Nets.. The Nets rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The New York Knicks have beaten the Raptors in all three meetings so far this season, and this one will end the same way. The Knicks have too much depth and scoring punch for the Raptors to overcome. They are playing some good basketball right now, winning four of their last five games. Take the team that feels like a true contender in this spot. 

The matchup against the Timberwolves is a challenging one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PGs have compiled the lowest FG% in the NBA this year (39.8%).. The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).. Over the last 15 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, struggling to get to the foul line.

This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 4.3 buckets per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, marking this as a hard matchup.. The Timberwolves check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

De’Aaron Fox is trading at +100 for the over 15.5 points, and that number is far too generous given that I price it closer to -195. This is easily my favorite prop on the board. With Joel Embiid out, the 76ers are expected to start Andre Drummond at center, and that immediately creates a problem. Drummond is forced to play a deep drop because of his limited lateral quickness, a coverage Fox should punish all night with open mid-range jumpers. If Drummond tries to step up, Fox has the elite speed to blow by him and get to the rim. On top of that, with both Embiid and Paul George unavailable, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are shouldering a massive offensive workload. It’s difficult to ask them to be primary creators and then also contain one of the fastest guards in the league on the defensive end. That combination makes this number simply too low.

 

The Philadelphia 76ers’ interior defense will be exposed again with Joel Embiid on the sideline. The team’s defensive rating without Embiid is a dreadful 117.1 this season. Philly surrendered 114 points, 59 total rebounds and a whopping 19 offensive boards in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Boston Celtics.

Kornet is averaging a career-best 15.5 PRA, and he’s gone for 12+ in 38 of 50 games overall, including six of his last nine. This line is wildly mispriced, and Kornet could see additional run if San Antonio runs away with the game in this favorable matchup.

OKC boasts the league’s No. 1 Defensive Rating and covers 57% of their road games. Facing a "tanking" Bulls “G-League” roster, the Thunder’s elite defensive efficiency and transition offense should pull away for a double-digit cover.

Matas Buzelis has averaged 20.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.3 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.. The Bulls have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 14 games as the home team.. The 2nd-quickest tempo team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Bulls.. This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.9 foul shots per game (7th-most in the NBA) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, easily managing to get to the foul line.

The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games as the home team.. The Lakers are expected to get a boost in possessions in this game from facing the 8th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

In comparison to last season's 20.0 rate, Austin Reaves's points per game have risen this season to 24.1.. The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games as the home team.. This year, opposing starting SGs have tallied 6.1 3-point attempts per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Pelicans, identifying this as a strong matchup.. The Lakers are expected to get a boost in possessions in this game from facing the 8th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

The matchup against Phoenix is a favorable one for 3-pointers; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have put up the 8th-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (41.1%).. The 10th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Kings.. The Kings rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

The Suns will likely get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 10th-fastest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Sacramento Kings).. The Suns check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).