NBA Picks

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Boston Celtics.. The Boston Celtics check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to increased opportunities for the Boston Celtics.. The Boston Celtics check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

The Miami Heat may be on the second night of a back-to-back, but this is an important game in the Southeast Division, and the starters’ minutes should reflect that. One head-to-head win could have a major impact on how the division race plays out between the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, and Orlando Magic. Tyler Herro is such a lethal shooter off the bounce — both from three-point range and in the mid-range — that Moussa Diabate will likely have to step up and show longer on pick-and-roll actions. That should open passing lanes to Miami’s bigs, creating high-value assist opportunities for Herro, especially with two lob threats at his disposal in Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware. I price the Over 3.5 assists at -145, which means we have a massive edge at the current price of +138.

Over the last 25 games, no team has been better ATS than the Charlotte Hornets, with a 19-6 record. In that span, Charlotte boasts a monstrous +308 point differential, easily the best mark in the Association.

The Houston Rockets rank as the least aggressive offense in the league with the home court advantage this year as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.. The Rockets have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.

In regard to shooting, the Trail Blazers's subpar 108.1 points per game when playing on the road measures as the 3rd-lowest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The Portland Trail Blazers are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 2nd-slowest tempo offense in the league this year (the Rockets).

Jalen Brunson is trading at -104 for the Over 26.5 points, and that’s a number I’m definitely willing to attack, as I price it closer to -155. Denver is short on point-of-attack defenders capable of slowing down a player like Brunson, which should allow him to mismatch hunt throughout the game. Nikola Jokić also isn’t a deterrent to the types of shots Brunson prefers in pick-and-roll situations. Because Jokić typically plays in a deep drop, Brunson should have plenty of opportunities to get to his mid-range jumper — a shot he’s extremely comfortable taking. Karl-Anthony Towns being available as the screener further opens the floor for Brunson. The Nuggets can’t simply collapse on Brunson, as Jokić also has to respect Towns’ shooting ability. Whether it’s through isolation or pick-and-roll actions, Brunson should consistently find favorable opportunities against a tired Denver defense.

 

The Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The matchup against New York is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Knicks are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 2nd-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (47.7%).. Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 5.2 free throws per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise plays for the Suns.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank best in in the league with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 3rd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should raise plays for the Suns.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank best in in the league with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the San Antonio Spurs, but that could actually benefit De’Aaron Fox. Victor Wembanyama logged 39 minutes in the front end against the Pistons, well above his season average. With that workload, it wouldn’t be surprising if Wembanyama is either ruled out for rest or placed on a minutes restriction against the Clippers, as the Spurs will want to protect him. If that happens, additional usage should shift toward Fox. Kris Dunn is a strong individual defender, but Brook Lopez won’t be able to contain Fox’s speed coming off screens in pick-and-roll actions. Fox should be able to exploit Lopez’s deep drop coverage, hunting mid-range jumpers or blowing past him to get to the rim. I price Fox at -215 to clear 15.5 points.

Brook Lopez has logged 11.4 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 higher than he's logged overall this season.. The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 7th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which ought to raise possessions for the Clippers.. As it relates to drawing fouls, the Clippers's excellent 25.9 free throw attempts per game when playing on the road settles in as the 3rd-best in the NBA this year.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.