NBA Picks

The Rockets big man catches a break without Embiid in action tonight. The Sixers defense sees a decline without their center in the middle as well as has a tougher time cleaning the glass. Sengun is coming off a 12-point, 14-rebound effort against Phoenix and faces a much softer interior from Philadelphia, which will rely on the old bones of Andre Drummond and reserve Adem Bona to plug the massive gap left by Embiid’s illness. His 34 double-doubles on the season are tied for eighth in the NBA and he had 13 points and eight rebounds versus Embiid when these teams last met in January. Projections have Sengun well clear of 10 points and his rebounding forecasts range from 8.9 to 10.8 boards versus the Sixers tonight.

Tyrese Maxey is a solid shooter. Before his pinkie injury in early March, the Philadelphia 76ers’ guard was shooting 37.3% from deep, making 3.3 per game. But he has not been humming since his return, hitting just 10-of-32 (31.2%) from deep in six games.

Looking at his last 19 games without Reaves in action, LeBron James has averaged 4.6 shots from beyond the arc. He’s connected for two or more triples in just nine of those contests. The Dubs have allowed foes to shoot 37% from distance since the All-Star break and that’s blown up to 39% over the past 10 outings. LeBron has faced the Warriors twice this season, going 4 for 6 and 2 for 7 from downtown in those matchups. His projections for Thursday range between 1.4 and 2.4 makes from 3-point land, with the bulk of those forecasts calling for two triples and his attempts as high as seven 3PAs.

Let’s face it—Draymond Green brings a different level of offensive energy when he’s facing his friend LeBron James. With the Warriors missing several key offensive pieces on Thursday, Green could definitely be in triple-double territory in this matchup. He should be heavily involved in initiating the offense, especially if the Warriors want to pull Deandre Ayton away from the rim and weaken the Lakers’ interior defense. With Ayton on the perimeter, players like Luke Kennard won’t provide much resistance at the rim on cuts created by Green’s passing. Green is averaging 14.2 potential assists over his last five games, and this matchup against the Lakers is another spot where we could see a high volume of opportunities. The over 6.5 assists is priced at -110, but I make it closer to -170, which suggests there’s solid value to exploit here.

New York has dominated Toronto over the years, winning 12 straight meetings, including victories by 15+ points in four consecutive contests. Back the Knicks to pull away at MSG.