NBA Picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Detroit Pistons).

The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 9th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home city, which ought to boost plays for the Detroit Pistons.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Detroit Pistons grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.1 offensive boards per game this year.

Phoenix is banged up and thin up front, and that’s a bad combo against a Charlotte team that’s second in the league in defensive rebounding. No second-chance points means no safety net.

On top of that, the Suns are coming off a physical road loss in Orlando. This shortened Phoenix roster looked fatigued against the Magic, and that’s not a good look against these Hornets. 

Take the Hornets to cover tonight. 

 

Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Hornets rank best in in the league as the home team with 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.. Over the last 5 games when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 7.5 foul shots per game (2nd-most in the NBA) against the Suns, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

For all its success, Los Angeles continues to get bullied on the blocks. The Lakers allow more than 53 points in the paint per game during this hot streak and a smaller rotation and ineffective interior defenders allow those foes to fire at a 69.5% clip within five feet of the rim. Hartenstein has had success versus the Lakers this season, putting up 10 and 11 points on a collective 9-for-15 shooting while logging 20 and 22 minutes in those two meetings. His projections for Thursday range between 8.8 and 9.0 points through 23 minutes of work.

The Thunder check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.

Cleveland has been very unreliable against big numbers, going a pathetic 4-16-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. There’s also minimal separation between these teams lately, with them ranking 17th and 19th in net rating over the last five games. While Golden State is on a back-to-back, its starters logged light minutes last night which limits fatigue concerns. With Stephen Curry nearing a return and the play-in touney coming up, expect a focused effort that keeps this within reach.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Cavaliers grade out 7th-best in the league while on the road with 12.2 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup against the Golden State Warriors may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.3 free throws per game over the last 5 games (6th-most in the league).

Portland has quietly emerged as the league’s top defensive unit in recent weeks, allowing just 104.5 points per game over its last 10 while ranking first in defensive rating. The Blazers have held 11 of their last 14 opponents under 112.5 points. Meanwhile, the foot has come off the gas for the Pelicans as they've lost five straight and have nothing to play for. With a layoff until Monday after this game and a chance to climb the standings, Portland should bring a strong defensive effort here.

The Trail Blazers have it going right now. They went into L.A. and dumped the Clippers, 114-104, making it seven wins in their last nine outings. The Blazers are doing it with defense. Over this stretch, they own the NBA’s best scoring defense at 104 points per game, allowing teams to shoot just 44% from the field and 32.3% from 3-point range. New Orleans fits into what Portland is doing, as they have dropped five straight and are scoring just 107.6 points per game during this slide.

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the San Antonio Spurs, and beyond the rest disadvantage, there are several tactical reasons why this spread should be tighter than the current 4-point margin. For starters, Brook Lopez at center is a key factor for the Clippers in this matchup. He spaces the floor, which limits Victor Wembanyama’s ability to roam defensively, and he can also provide rim protection against Wembanyama on the other end. Another important factor is the potential minutes distribution for the stars on each side. The Clippers haven’t played since Tuesday and don’t play again until Sunday, so there’s little reason for Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland not to see elevated minutes. On the other side, De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama could have their minutes managed due to the scheduling spot. Even a slight edge in superstar minutes can make a meaningful difference.

In regard to 3-point shots, the LA Clippers's exceptional 44.4% rate of converted threes rates 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games.. The Clippers are expected to get a boost in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Spurs).. The matchup against San Antonio may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 3.9 free throws per game over the last 24 games when the San Antonio Spurs are the visiting team (4th-most in the league).