Indiana @ Oklahoma City picks

During the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar led the Association in points per game at 32.7, dropping 33.4 at home and 31.9 on the road. His home/road splits have been much more pronounced in the playoffs, and I expect him to be fired up in front of the home crowd for Game 7.

Tyrese Haliburton's calf did not bother his shot on Thursday, hitting 3-of-7 from deep in only 23 minutes of action. He should play more tonight, no blowout big enough in a Game 7 to send players to the bench, and every version of a deciding fourth quarter should include Haliburton pulling up from deep. With his calf only better, trusting Haliburton's shot again makes sense.

If looking at the milestones market, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to notch 7+ assists at +130 is also worth pondering. Sure, he has cleared this prop — and that milestone — in just two of six games in these NBA Finals, but the way Indiana adjusted its defense to the MVP in Game 6 should encourage him to move the ball better in Game 7. That should have been his immediate thought on Thursday, but sometimes it takes a film session to properly understand the needed adjustment.

McConnell has averaged 16.4 PRA in the playoffs as a whole, but he’s come alive in the Finals, posting 11.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 4.5 assists — good for 19 PRA.

Siakam’s production has improved in the Finals, averaging 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and four assists, for a PRA of 32.1. He leads the Pacers in points and rebounds and ranks third in assists through six games of the Finals.

Luguentz Dort has converted 49.2% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 8.5% higher than he's put through the net in all games this season.. Luguentz Dort has made 56.7% of his treys over the last 5 games, 19.5% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season.. Luguentz Dort has averaged 33.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 4.3 higher than he's averaged overall this year at home.. The matchup against the Pacers is a strong one; they have allowed the most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SGs this year (19.0).. The 5th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.

The clash with Myles Turner slots into the 100th percentile with the other side's starting Cs burying a monstrous 33.0% of their attempts from beyond the arc this year when they are at home.. The 5th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should increase plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 10th-best in in the league with 11.6 offensive boards per game over the last 23 games.. Isaiah Hartenstein will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage tends to increase player performance in all stat categories.

Out of all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton lands in the 95th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, compiling 7.6 per game this year.. Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 33.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 92nd percentile.. The Indiana Pacers rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 7.7 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Thunder, creating a positive matchup.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games.

Out of all players in the NBA, Tyrese Haliburton lands in the 95th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, compiling 7.6 per game this year.. Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 33.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 92nd percentile.. The Indiana Pacers have been the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 15 games as the road team.. This year, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 7.7 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Thunder, creating a positive matchup.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-speediest pace in the league over the last 15 games.

The 5th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should increase plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 10th-best in in the league with 11.6 offensive boards per game over the last 23 games.. Chet Holmgren will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home generally raises player performance for all stats.

Alex Caruso has averaged 28.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 7.3 more than he's averaged in all games this season.. The 5th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year has been the Thunder.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should increase plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 10th-best in in the league with 11.6 offensive boards per game over the last 23 games.. Alex Caruso will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium tends to raise stat production for all stats.