Just one win separates Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from his first NBA title.
After an uncharacteristically off night in Game 6, finishing with only 21 points and eight turnovers, he and the Oklahoma City Thunder head into the winner-takes-all Game 7 against the Indiana Pacers.
The latest Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds hinge on a rebound performance from the reigning MVP as he aims to clinch the Larry O’Brien Trophy at Paycom Center.
Read more in my NBA picks for Sunday, June 22.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Over 33.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no stranger to monster scoring efforts.
During the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder superstar led the Association in points per game at 32.7, dropping 33.4 at home and 31.9 on the road. His home/road splits have been much more pronounced in the playoffs, and I expect him to be fired up in front of the home crowd for Game 7.
Over his last 18 games, SGA has averaged 26.1 points per game on the road compared to a healthy 33.9 average at home. He’s scored at least 34 points in eight of those 18, including six of 10 at Paycom Center.
Oklahoma City has won 12 of its last 18, and Gilgeous-Alexander posted at least 34 points in seven of those victories. In the postseason, SGA’s aggression on offense has translated well to overall team success. In losses, he’s averaged just 7.5 free throws, but in wins, that number leaps to 10.3.
Over his last 12 games, Gilgeous-Alexander hadn’t finished with less than 34 points in consecutive starts until Games 5 and 6. In Game 5, Jalen Williams took center stage with a masterful 40-point performance, leaving SGA to play facilitator and finish with 31 points and 10 dimes. In Game 6, the contest was decided at halftime, and he only took 15 shots across 31 minutes.
I expect Game 7 to be much closer than Game 6, and that means the Thunder will need a big scoring performance from SGA if they hope to win the title.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Over 33.5 points
Under 1.5 threes
Under 2.5 turnovers
The “Middy Merchant” and “Free Throw King” surprisingly averaged the most 3-pointers of his career this season, with 2.1 per tilt, but he’s stepped back in that department throughout the playoffs.
Over his last three playoff series, Gilgeous-Alexander has knocked down one or fewer triples in 11 of 18 appearances. He hit a trio of treys in Game 1 of the Finals, but he’s made no more than one in each of his last five matchups.
SGA doesn’t need multiple threes to pile up points, and I anticipate him embracing the mid-range tactics that earned him the scoring title and regular-season MVP.
As a high-usage player, SGA is secure with the basketball. He’s averaged fewer than three turnovers per contest for four straight seasons and six of his seven professional campaigns.
Gilgeous-Alexander has turned it over three or more times in just two of 12 playoff matchups on his home floor. He committed eight turnovers in Game 6, tied for his season high, and he’ll surely emphasize ball security in Game 7.
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