NBA Picks

This is rematch from Wednesday when the Raptors hammered the Heat 121-95. Toronto had a +12 rebounding margin and scored 70 points in the paint, while holding Miami to 36 FG%. Expect better shooting from the Heat but their defense should get torched again and they'll struggle against Toronto's length on the glass. Miami is 26th in the league in ppg allowed (126.3) over the last 15 games and has struggled on the road. Meanwhile, the Raps are finally at full strength after  dealing with key injuries all season. This should be closer than the last game, but Toronto will still win by at least four points.

Barrett finished with only two assists in that last meeting with Miami, marking just the third time in the past nine games Barrett hasn’t dished out four or more assists. He registered seven potential assists versus Miami last time out and averaged 6.6 potential dimes over the previous nine outings. The Heat have nosedived down the defensive rankings in recent months and have allowed 28.6 assists per game since the All-Star break (22nd). Projections for Barrett all sit north of the 3.5 O/U, with the majority of models at four dimes with a ceiling flirting with five. 

Guerschon Yabusele is averaging almost 28 minutes and putting up 11.4 points and six rebounds in his past five outings. Yabusele’s rebounding chances jumped to 13.6 per game in that stretch, up from 11.0 in his first 19 games with the Chicago Bulls. Yabusele snatched six rebounds against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday and his projections for this rematch sit between 6.2 and 9.0 boards with most models above the rebounding total of 6.5 O/U.

He’s averaging almost 28 minutes and putting up 11.4 points and six rebounds in his past five outings. Yabusele’s rebounding chances jumped to 13.6 per game in that stretch, up from 11.0 in his first 19 games with Chicago. Yabusele snatched six rebounds against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday and his projections for this rematch sit between 6.2 and 9.0 boards with most models above the rebounding total of 6.5 O/U.

Jaylen Brown has cleared this prop in eight of his last 10 games, both exceptions coming by merely the hook. That kind of production should be immune to New York’s slowed pace, particularly since Boston works at nearly as slow a tempo by default.

Mikal Bridges has been excellent against the rival Celtics this season, putting up efforts of 12, 14, and 35 points in three meetings. Boston could opt to sit as many as four starters in the first of back-to-back games tonight. Bridges is averaging more than 14 points per game over his last eight outings while shooting 50% from the field in that span. Bridges projections all sit north of 13 points with a ceiling of 14.5. That could be even bigger if Boston rolls out a makeshift lineup and lies down for the Knicks.

This loss means something to Brooklyn. Yes, this is a system that needs to be adjusted, but until it is, one can justifiably and cynically expect the Nets to find a way to lose this game tonight, and with a spread within a bucket, that loss is likely to be a loss against the spread, as well.

Kobe Brown has tallied 13.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 8.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year.. The Indiana Pacers have been the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home in regard to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Indiana Pacers have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.. This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (10th-most in the NBA) against the Nets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

The Rockets are rolling at the right time with the playoffs looming, and a win tonight could vault them past the Lakers in the standings. The Sixers are getting healthier, but they’ve still dropped back-to-back games by double digits vs watered-down version of the Spurs and Pistons. This is a very fraudulent Sixers team, as they've gone just 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs since March 1st. 

Amen Thompson is priced at +102 for over 5.5 assists, and that’s a number worth attacking—I make it closer to -155 for him to clear. There’s a lot to like about this matchup against the 76ers. Whether it’s Tyrese Maxey as his primary defender—who lacks the size to disrupt Thompson’s passing lanes and vision—or Thompson’s ability to push the pace in transition against an older roster featuring Paul George and Joel Embiid, this sets up well for him to generate easy potential assists. The bottom line is that Thompson’s athleticism is a major problem for this 76ers team. If he gets downhill and forces Embiid into drop coverage, he should consistently create high-quality assist opportunities for his teammates, especially Alperen Şengün.

Let’s face it—Draymond Green brings a different level of offensive energy when he’s facing his friend LeBron James. With the Warriors missing several key offensive pieces on Thursday, Green could definitely be in triple-double territory in this matchup. He should be heavily involved in initiating the offense, especially if the Warriors want to pull Deandre Ayton away from the rim and weaken the Lakers’ interior defense. With Ayton on the perimeter, players like Luke Kennard won’t provide much resistance at the rim on cuts created by Green’s passing. Green is averaging 14.2 potential assists over his last five games, and this matchup against the Lakers is another spot where we could see a high volume of opportunities. The over 6.5 assists is priced at -110, but I make it closer to -170, which suggests there’s solid value to exploit here.

When it comes to scoring, the Lakers's outstanding 118.1 points per game ranks 9th-highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.. The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a strong one for three-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have compiled the highest 3-point rate in the league this year (47.0%).. Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 3.8 foul shots per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Golden State Warriors, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

New York has dominated Toronto over the years, winning 12 straight meetings, including victories by 15+ points in four consecutive contests. Back the Knicks to pull away at MSG.