NBA Picks

Maybe Garland has just been healthier this month. Maybe there’s some extra juice after the Cleveland Cavaliers gave up on him at the trade deadline. Either way, his strong March numbers have solidified the Clippers as a dangerous potential first-round playoff opponent.

With that in mind, the Garland points prop is the standout pick for me today. He poured in 30 points for L.A. on Friday against the Indiana Pacers, making 10 of his 19 shots, including six 3-pointers, and he’s gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings. I’m buying into the crafty point guard’s 21.8 PPG average in March, and a lackluster Milwaukee squad is an ideal opponent here. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed out (knee), and there’s no reason for him to play considering the Bucks are 2-8 over their last 10 and out of the play-in race. Take the Clippers to pull away at Fiserv Forum.

The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 10 games.

The quickest tempo team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.. The Pacers have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games on their home court, which ought to increase plays for the Heat.. The Heat check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).. This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 4.0 free throws per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Indiana Pacers, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

In regard to 3-pointers, the Portland Trail Blazers's lackluster 34.0% rate of made threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the NBA this year.

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have logged 18.6 points per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Washington Wizards, designating this as a favorable matchup for offensive production.. The 4th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Trail Blazers.. The Portland Trail Blazers are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from squaring off against the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo away team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Wizards).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Trail Blazers grade out best in in the league with 14.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.. Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 6.0 foul shots per game (3rd-highest in the league) vs. the Wizards, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

The short-handed Celtics could have trouble on the perimeter. Charlotte has made the most 3-pointers in the NBA and has the third-best accuracy from three. Boston’s defense is in the bottom half of the league in both categories, even when everyone is suited up and healthy.

With respect to scoring, the Celtics's poor 111.3 points per game settles in as the 3rd-lowest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year.. The Celtics are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from competing against the 3rd-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Hornets).

The Sacramento Kings check in as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.. The Kings will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-most sluggish pace home offense in the league this year (the Brooklyn Nets).. Over the last 5 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 0.8 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Brooklyn Nets, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Nets.. The matchup against the Kings is a favorable one; they have given up the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SGs this year (18.1).. The matchup against the Kings is a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted an enormous 4.7 foul shots per game this year (most in the NBA).

Tristan da Silva has seen an increase in playing time as Magic starters have gone down with injuries, and he's seized the opportunity.

Da Silva's averaging 14.3 ppg in March while scoring Over 10.5 points in four straight and 11 of his last 15 outings.

The Toronto Raptors check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

The New Orleans Pelicans rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league while on their home court this year with respect to three-point shots.. This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 21.7% on threes (weakest in the league) vs. the Rockets, identifying this as a challenging matchup.. The Pelicans are expected to experience a decrease in plays today from squaring off against the 2nd-slowest tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Rockets).

The Houston Rockets will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 7th-most up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Pelicans).. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce further chances for scoring and assists, and the Houston Rockets rank best in in the league with 15.1 offensive boards per game this year.

The matchup vs. the Thunder is a favorable one for 3-point shots; the opposition's starting SGs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (44.1%).. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the New York Knicks.. The New York Knicks have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the New York Knicks.. The New York Knicks have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Jamal Murray is averaging a career-high 25.5 points per game, but he’s in the midst of a major heater right now. Murray has averaged 27.1 points across his last 16 outings, including 84 points across his last two games.

Murray’s been a versatile scorer over his last 16, knocking down 3.4 triples and hitting 5.9 of 6.6 free throws. He’s scored 23+ in nine of his last 16 overall and six of his last nine at home. Denver’s star point guard has reached 23 points in 44 of 70 games, including 20 of 33 at home.

In three matchups with the Warriors, Murray scored 21, 23, and 25 points, and Golden State’s defense presents a favorable matchup on Sunday. Over the last 10 games, the Warriors have allowed the 10th-most points (120.8), and they sport the 19th-ranked defensive rating (117.1). 

Murray should have no problem reaching the Over on such a modest scoring line given his recent offensive success and exploitable defensive matchup.

The Warriors have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road.. The Warriors will likely get a boost in plays today from squaring off against the 5th-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Denver Nuggets).. The Golden State Warriors rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).