NBA Picks

Orlando has come out sharp in this series, continuing a trend that started late in the regular season. They’re on a 9-2 run against the spread in the first half and are 3-0 in this series, driven largely by elite defense that’s held Detroit to the worst first-half offensive rating in the playoffs so far. Getting 1.5 points on their home floor, where they’ve led at halftime in eight of their last nine games, I'll happily back the pattern to continue.

The Brooks-related headline has been that he has scored 30+ points in each of his last two games, averaging 27 points per game in this series. But the actual stat to note is that he has taken at least 21 shots in each game of the series. Meanwhile, Devin Booker has not taken more than 17 shots in a game. Brooks has taken a total of 19 more shots than the Suns’ cornerstone has, a reality created intentionally by the Thunder.

McDaniels averaged 18.7 points in 16 games without Edwards this season, compared to 13.8 in 57 games alongside Edwards. He takes 3.6 more shots per game with Edwards sidelined, including an average of one additional 3-pointer. These are the reasons McDaniels has topped this prop in 10 of those 16 games without Edwards, two of those exceptions falling short by only the hook.

Embiid played 34 minutes in his first game since April 6 and while his conditioning was poor, he still finished with 10 rebounds. However, he was in position for 21.0 rebounding chances which would normally fetch between 12 and 15 boards for most centers. I expect him to be a bit livelier in Game 5, having shaken off the rust, and with the 76ers guards making a concerted effort to box out, that surplus of rebounding chances converts into actual boards. Player projections sit as high as 10.4 rebounds from Embiid Tuesday.

Karl-Anthony Towns took over as the Knicks' primary playmaker in Game 4. The center set up shop at the top of the key, pulling away interior defenders and dished out 10 assists on 12 potential dimes, finding cutters to the rim and shooters off screen action. KAT holds a size edge over the small Hawks frontcourt, so he's able to see plays develop and finding open hands over the top. New York is trying to get Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges going, which means those guards playing off the ball and making Towns the conduit for this offense. It worked great in Game 4 and the Knicks will stick to it in Game 5.