With the NBA Draft set for Tuesday, June 23, all basketball eyes turn to Milwaukee.
The Bucks insisted Giannis Antetokounmpo would either be traded — or decisively not traded — before the NBA Draft, and yet here we are, simply waiting.
As we wait, studying the NBA Draft odds reveals a few chances at profit, though prudent betting is likely the smartest betting ahead of Tuesday night.
Even Shams Charania has been loudly shown to know nothing for sure until picks are made.
Best NBA Draft predictions
| Pick |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Pick Traded: No | 90¢ | -900 |
| Darryn Peterson over Cameron Boozer | 68¢ | -213 |
| AJ Dybantsa No. 2 Pick | 17¢ | +488 |
| Caleb Wilson No. 3 Pick | 14¢ | +614 |
| Mikel Brown Jr. over Kingston Flemings | 76¢ | -317 |
Percentages via Kalshi.
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NBA Draft Predictions & Analysis
No. 1 Pick To Be Traded: No
This may seem rather obvious, but it is still underpriced.
The tanking in the 2025-26 season was so egregious that it has now sparked paradigm-shifting reforms in the NBA, changes that could have unexpected effects for a decade to come.
The Washington Wizards did not bench Trae Young and Anthony Davis upon receiving them in separate trades, only to now trade away the No. 1 pick. The Wizards see their future. It is based around this top pick, complementing Young offensively and Davis defensively for the rest of the 2020s.
Short of Antetokounmpo — who would never re-sign with the Wizards and thus Washington would never consider sending assets for him — there is no one on the market that would justify even thinking about moving the No. 1 pick.
Draft Matchup: Darryn Peterson vs Cameron Boozer
Pick: Darryn Peterson
-213 at Kalshi
No, Darryn Peterson has not visited the Utah Jazz, trying to force his way into the No. 1 pick. That looks less and less likely for Peterson, most informed minds expecting the Wizards to select AJ Dybantsa from BYU.
But that does not mean the Jazz will not take Peterson at No. 2. First of all, Utah selected Ace Bailey last year, fifth overall, without ever meeting with him. Second of all, Peterson both has a higher ceiling than Boozer does and fits the Jazz roster better.
Utah already has a massive interior presence that cannot guard wings on the perimeter in Walker Kessler, no matter what contract dispute is going to plague any headline on Kessler for the next few weeks. Adding Cameron Boozer alongside Kessler would simply be poor roster design in the modern NBA.
No. 2 Pick: AJ Dybantsa
Do not expect this. Dybantsa very much looks like the No. 1 pick. Peterson’s struggles in his one season at Kansas dampened the certainty a front office wants in a No. 1 overall pick.
But perhaps we will look back and scoff at the confusing health concerns that limited Peterson last season. He may prove to be an ironman now that he says he has figured out why cramps repeatedly sidelined him in Big 12 play.
Washington might believe that. And if it does, Dybantsa will certainly not fall past No. 2 overall, especially given the built-in fanbase he would have in Utah as a BYU product.
Peterson is priced at 21 cents to go No. 1 overall, which underscores the touch of value presented here of Dybantsa going No. 2 overall.
No. 3 Pick: Caleb Wilson
Again, this is a long-shot play, but it is offered as skepticism that the Memphis Grizzlies want to invest in another big.
Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey have little in common; Boozer is by far the better and more complete player who can do much more on the court. But the Grizzlies have already made massive decisions around the belief that Edey is a player to build a franchise around, however misguided that may or may not be.
Putting Boozer next to Edey would leave Memphis exposed defensively for years to come, no matter the claimed rim protection provided by Edey. Neither Boozer nor Edey can keep up with the perimeter-driven stars that dictate the Western Conference.
That leaves the Grizzlies with two choices: Either begin to lessen Edey’s shadow on the franchise or draft someone besides Boozer.
Caleb Wilson could help fill the hole that will eventually be left by Ja Morant, whose time with the franchise continues to appear like it is winding down. Optimistically, a Wilson/Edey pick-and-roll could be a foundational piece of a functional offense.
Draft Matchup: Mikel Brown Jr. vs. Kingston Flemings
Pick: Mikel Brown Jr.
-317 at Kalshi
Mikel Brown Jr. has one of the longest track records of success among the players in this lottery. A back issue cost him a decent amount of his sole season at Louisville, but before then, Brown had already led the U.S. to a FIBA gold medal in the U19 competition last summer.
By comparison, Kingston Flemings emerged on draft boards more thanks to his one year at Houston. He was excellent, and he played up to the competition in the Cougars’ biggest games.
But in NBA front offices, they have been scouting these players for years, and Brown’s earlier successes loom large in draft evaluations.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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