This price could easily be closer to +250, and it already is at some books. That's what happens when you combine the home run boost of GABP with a matchup against Rhett Lowder. Esmerlyn Valdez is a human weapon who can handle both sides of the plate and launch baseballs 110 mph. He leads MLB in Barrel% at 26.9% (min. 50 PA) and owns a higher slugging percentage than Yordan Alvarez this season. His 34% HR/FB rate ranks second in baseball. He is still available around 10/1 for NL Rookie of the Year, but with half the games played of St. Louis' JJ Wetherholt, there is still value in the market. The Reds could be down to just four bullpen arms today, with two of them being left-handed. That creates plenty of opportunities against Lowder and the Cincinnati bullpen for the man missile, Valdez.

Jake Irvin finds himself in a brutal matchup against the highest rated lineup on Batters-Box today. The Nationals right hander draws four elite rated Braves bats and another with a strong rating, while his recent underlying numbers have been far from encouraging. Atlanta has been crushing the baseball over the last two weeks, posting elite offensive metrics across the board and carrying an average hitter rating just shy of elite status. With Irvin allowing plenty of hard contact and barrels recently, this sets up as another favorable spot for the Braves offense. 

Let's take another big swing, this time at Sutter Health Park, where the ball flies, and the Athletics' pitching staff is hanging on by a thread. Mason Barnett is making his first start of the season after working in a bulk relief role. The rotation injuries continue to pile up with Luis Severino, JT Ginn, Jeffrey Springs, and Gunnar Hoglund all sidelined. Barnett is a home-run-prone arm with just a 33% groundball rate and will eventually hand things over to a bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA over the last two weeks. Andruw Monasterio crushes left-handed pitching, and with three left-handed relievers available in the Athletics' bullpen, he should see favorable matchups throughout the game. Monasterio also leads the Red Sox with a .714 slugging percentage over the last two weeks, while his .511 wOBA ranks sixth in baseball during that span. There should be plenty of balls leaving the yard at Sutter Health Park today.

Let's stay in San Diego and attack the Over on a modest strikeout total for Padres starter JP Sears. The lefty is making a start after spending some time in a bulk relief role. He threw 55 pitches five days ago and has already been stretched out to 95 pitches earlier this season. He likely won't get that far today, but 75-80 pitches is certainly in play. THE BAT projects him around four strikeouts on 72 pitches, but that might be a little conservative. The Giants strike out 2.3% more often against left-handed pitching, and Sears has reached at least three strikeouts in all six of his appearances this season, giving him a solid floor. The Padres also used five bullpen arms yesterday and could be without three right-handed relievers, which adds more value to Sears getting through the lineup multiple times. There is plenty of meat on this bone with a fair price around -125.

Seattle has dropped 15 of its last 20 road games, and things don't get any easier tonight. Bryan Woo has been awful away from home, posting a 6.52 ERA in road starts thanks to getting shelled on multiple occasions. Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank fourth in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Roki Sasaki is also trending in the right direction, allowing just one earned run across his last two starts ahead of a matchup with a Mariners lineup that's struggling vs right-handed pitching.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.