The Brewers are set up nicely to bounce back after Wednesday’s blowout loss. They've been strong in games after a loss this season and own an MLB-best 11-4 record following a day off. They'll face Angels youngster Ryan Johnson, who owns an ugly 7.34 ERA and has been smacked around in multiple starts. With Milwaukee ranking second in OPS over the past week and Los Angeles sitting 27th in OPS in July, Shane Drohan is well-positioned to lead the Brewers to a comfortable win.

The Detroit Tigers can be had for a reasonable price after the market pounced on the A's side when projected starter Casey Mize was scratched.  Enter Ty Madden, who's been great (2.72 xERA, 2.99 FIP) across 27 innings in the big leagues. Detroit is fresh off a day of rest, so the bullpen behind him will have every notable arm available. Play the Tigers to -140.

Rafael Devers tops Batters-Box's ratings today, marking his 260th elite rated matchup over the last three seasons. He has homered in 22.39% of his previous 259 elite rated games, and tonight's matchup is another favorable one. Germán Márquez has been crushed by left handed hitters all season, allowing a ton of contact, plenty of elevation, and elite expected numbers. While Devers' pitch coverage is lowered by a limited sample against Márquez's knuckle curve, he grades out extremely well against the rest of his arsenal. Combined with Devers' recent form, this sets up as an outstanding opportunity for a long ball.

Ranger Suárez will make his second start since returning from a groin injury. In his first outing on July 26 against the Blue Jays, he threw just four scoreless innings on 64 pitches while striking out six, suggesting the Red Sox are still easing him back. Against the Dodgers' patient lineup, this could be another short outing, exposing Boston's middle relievers. The matchup is also dangerous for Suárez, whose heavy sinker lives at the bottom of the zone and relies on weak ground balls. The Dodgers match up well against that profile, with right-handed hitters like Mookie Betts and Andy Pages owning swing paths built to attack low pitches. Polymarket has Los Angeles at a 54-cent favorite, but I make them closer to 58 cents, so I'm hitting the button.

Randy Arozarena is in a premium matchup against Zebby Matthews, who has struggled throughout the season and has been especially vulnerable away from home. Matthews has also been hit hard by right handed batters recently, allowing plenty of quality contact and power. Arozarena enters this matchup swinging a scorching hot bat against right handed pitching, backed by elite hard hit and barrel rates over his recent sample. Batters-Box also grades him with an elite matchup rating, while also having incredible arsenal coverage against Matthews' offerings. Everything lines up for Arozarena to continue his hot streak in a favorable home matchup.

Pittsburgh’s pitching efficiency carries the day here, posting a sixth-ranked 3.10 SIERA alongside a robust 19.7% K-BB% rate. Braxton Ashcraft matches up against Andrew Abbott, where Cincinnati’s offensive struggles (83 wRC+) and high strikeout tendency (26.4% K%) make the Pirates a clean road target.

We saw just how ineffective these offenses can be with barrel suppression yesterday in a 2-0 Yankees win. I'm backing another low-scoring affair and would play the Under to 6, particularly considering the weather in store.

Rain and wind blowing in at Wrigley are not small variables, especially with the pitchers in mind.

Fried fits the weather. His 50% ground-ball rate and almost non-existent barrel rate make it difficult for the Cubbies to create power. Peterson’s overall profile is shakier, but he still owns a 49% ground-ball rate, and the weather helps cover some of his air-contact risk.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.