MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 17, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

NYM @

CHC Fri, Apr 17 • 2:20 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Pete Crow-Armstrong u0.5 Total Hits (+173)

Projection 0.86

Best Odds

u0.5 +173

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +173

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +164

u0.5 +165

Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst stadium in the game for LHB batting average.. Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Over the last 7 days, Pete Crow-Armstrong's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 91.9 mph to 85.1 mph.

+173 at DraftKings

Total Hits

Brett Baty u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.85

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +158

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +159

u0.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst stadium in the game for LHB batting average.. Extreme flyball bats like Brett Baty are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Chicago Cubs.. Brett Baty is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams today).. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Brett Baty today.

+160 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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BAL @

CLE Fri, Apr 17 • 6:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+175)

Projection 1.55

Best Odds

o1.5 +175

Pick made: 26 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +164

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +155

o1.5 +175

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Ward in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Taylor Ward is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #3 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Taylor Ward has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

+175 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Chase DeLauter o1.5 Total Bases (+135)

Projection 1.75

Best Odds

o1.5 +135

Pick made: 17 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +124

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +119

o1.5 +125

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Chase DeLauter ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase DeLauter is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Progressive Field grades out as the #3 stadium in Major League Baseball for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Given Chris Bassitt's large platoon split, Chase DeLauter will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

+135 at bet365

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ATL @

PHI Fri, Apr 17 • 6:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Edmundo Sosa u0.5 Total Hits (+190)

Projection 0.9

Best Odds

u0.5 +190

Pick made: 11 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +185

u0.5 +190

u0.5 +171

u0.5 +180

Edmundo Sosa has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 26% of the time when starting against a southpaw since the start of last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-worst park in the game for right-handed batting average.. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Edmundo Sosa's speed has dropped off this year. His 29.43 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.26 ft/sec now.

+190 at bet365

Total Bases

Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 2.03

Best Odds

o1.5 +125

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +116

o1.5 +115

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest fences in Major League Baseball — generally good for HRs.. This game is expected to have the 14th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today.

+125 at DraftKings

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SF @

WAS Fri, Apr 17 • 6:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Willy Adames o1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Projection 2.04

Best Odds

o1.5 +110

Pick made: 23 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +108

o1.5 +110

o1.5 -105

o1.5 +105

o1.5 +110

As it relates to his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Willy Adames has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 99.6-mph average over the last week to his seasonal mark of 94.2-mph.. Willy Adames's launch angle this year (24.6°) is significantly higher than his 21.6° figure last year.

+110 at bet365

Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Projection 2.09

Best Odds

o1.5 +105

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +105

o1.5 -105

o1.5 -120

o1.5 +100

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Nationals Park has the 7th-shallowest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage against Zack Littell in today's game.

+105 at DraftKings

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TB @

PIT Fri, Apr 17 • 6:45 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Projection 2.09

Best Odds

o1.5 +110

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -102

o1.5 +110

o1.5 -130

o1.5 -103

o1.5 +100

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as MLB's 11th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand today.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

+110 at bet365

Total Bases

Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 1.87

Best Odds

o1.5 +125

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +118

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +115

o1.5 +125

As it relates to his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting of all games on the slate.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Martinez in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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KC @

NYY Fri, Apr 17 • 7:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Giancarlo Stanton o1.5 Total Bases (+150)

Projection 1.88

Best Odds

o1.5 +150

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +129

o1.5 +140

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Giancarlo Stanton as the majors's 7th-best home run hitter.. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Giancarlo Stanton will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Giancarlo Stanton's launch angle this year (21.5°) is considerably better than his 18.5° mark last year.

+150 at bet365

Total Bases

Trent Grisham o1.5 Total Bases (+155)

Projection 1.81

Best Odds

o1.5 +155

Pick made: 26 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +137

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +155

When estimating his home run ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. In the league, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Michael Wacha throws from, Trent Grisham will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Trent Grisham will hold that advantage today.

+155 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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MIL @

MIA Fri, Apr 17 • 7:10 PM ET

1 Computer Pick

Total Home Runs

Gary Sanchez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+575)

Projection 0.2

Best Odds

o0.5 +575

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o0.5 +575

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Gary Sanchez as MLB's 14th-best home run hitter.. Gary Sanchez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Gary Sanchez has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Sanchez.. Over the past week, Gary Sanchez has displayed impressive power, recording a a 33.3% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power).

+575 at bet365

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DET @

BOS Fri, Apr 17 • 7:15 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Javier Baez u0.5 Total Hits (+140)

Projection 0.76

Best Odds

u0.5 +143

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +143

u0.5 +140

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Baez in the 14th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Javier Baez is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game.. When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Javier Baez has been pinch hit for 15% of the time.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-coldest weather on the schedule today at 57°.

+143 at Caesars

Total Hits

Matt Vierling u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +155

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +151

u0.5 +150

Matt Vierling is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.. When starting against a southpaw since the start of last season, Matt Vierling has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 30% of the time.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 4th-coldest weather on the schedule today at 57°.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

+155 at DraftKings

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CIN @

MIN Fri, Apr 17 • 8:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+155)

Projection 1.75

Best Odds

o1.5 +155

Pick made: 8 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +133

o1.5 +155

o1.5 +120

o1.5 +129

o1.5 +135

When estimating his BABIP skill, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.6-mph in this match-up, the best of the day for bats.. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Joe Ryan... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

+155 at bet365

Total Bases

Matt Wallner u1.5 Total Bases (-260)

Projection 0.68

Best Odds

u1.5 -260

Pick made: 19 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -260

Matt Wallner is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. Target Field has the 9th-deepest CF fences in Major League Baseball.. Target Field has the 5th-highest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 46°.. Hitting from the same side that Brandon Williamson throws from, Matt Wallner will be in a tough position today.

-260 at bet365

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LAD @

COL Fri, Apr 17 • 8:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Mickey Moniak u1.5 Total Bases (-180)

Projection 0.78

Best Odds

u1.5 -180

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -189

u1.5 -210

u1.5 -180

Mickey Moniak has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 28% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with lower temperatures, and the weather report for this matchup calls for the lowest temperature of the day at 37°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 13.3-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Mickey Moniak's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph average last year has fallen to 87.3-mph.. By putting up a 5.86 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Mickey Moniak has shown poor plate discipline, ranking in the 4th percentile.

-180 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Projection 2.1

Best Odds

o1.5 +100

Pick made: 39 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -102

o1.5 -105

o1.5 +100

o1.5 -102

o1.5 +100

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Teoscar Hernandez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. Coors Field projects as the #1 park in MLB for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which generally leads to more offense.. The Colorado Rockies outfield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams in action today.

+100 at FanDuel

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SD @

LAA Fri, Apr 17 • 9:38 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Gavin Sheets u1.5 Total Bases (-190)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

u1.5 -190

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -260

u1.5 -190

Gavin Sheets's BABIP skill is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.. Dry weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-least humidity of all games on the slate at 28%.. Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. From last year to this one, Gavin Sheets's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15% to 11.1%.

-190 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

Zach Neto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)

Projection 1.83

Best Odds

o1.5 +125

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +111

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +112

o1.5 +105

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Zach Neto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Zach Neto is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Zach Neto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

+125 at bet365

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TOR @

AZ Fri, Apr 17 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Bases

Jose Fernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+160)

Projection 1.64

Best Odds

o1.5 +160

Pick made: 3 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +149

o1.5 +125

o1.5 +160

o1.5 +150

o1.5 +140

Jose Fernandez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the game for RHB batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jose Fernandez will have the handedness advantage against Eric Lauer in today's matchup.

+160 at FanDuel

Total Bases

Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+110)

Projection 1.96

Best Odds

o1.5 +110

Pick made: 19 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +110

o1.5 -115

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +108

o1.5 +110

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. Chase Field grades out as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts the 3rd-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

+110 at DraftKings

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$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

SEA Fri, Apr 17 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Wyatt Langford u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.77

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +129

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +126

u0.5 +135

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the worst field in MLB for RHB batting average.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Wyatt Langford will not have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Wyatt Langford will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

+150 at bet365

Total Bases

Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-220)

Projection 0.58

Best Odds

u1.5 -220

Pick made: 29 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -220

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the worst park in the league for run-scoring.. Built just 17 feet above sea level, T-Mobile Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output.. This game is predicted to have the 2nd-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The Texas Rangers outfield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among all the teams in action today.. Cal Raleigh has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 19% rate last year has decreased to 9.1% this season.

-220 at bet365

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CHW @

ATH Fri, Apr 17 • 9:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.72

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: 9 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +158

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +160

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 10th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Carlos Cortes is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.. This year, Carlos Cortes has been pulled from the game early in 45% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Carlos Cortes hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

+160 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Hits

Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.71

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: 3 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +148

u0.5 +150

Munetaka Murakami's batting average talent is projected to be in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-most favorable pitching conditions of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Today, Munetaka Murakami is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (89th percentile).. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

+150 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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