MLB Picks

Daulton Varsho brings a lot of pop from the left side of the plate, and Soriano has given up a little bit more power to lefties than righties this season. Varsho does seem to see the sinker well out of the pitcher's hand, which is the most used pitch Soriano throws against lefties. The Jays outfielder owns a .438 batting average and a .688 slugging percentage against the pitch.

Let's stay indoors and bet on a bat who has already homered in two straight games in Seattle with Shea Langeliers, who has launched eight homers this year. Logan Gilbert is a flyball pitcher, which is in our favor here, and Langeliers has also seen plenty of this Seattle bullpen and took it deep last night. Ultimately, this is a play on price, and getting elite HR hitters at +EV isn't a common occurrence. The fair price is around +380. Let's back the hot stick today with great expected value. 

The Brew Crew has cashed the Over in three of their last four. The Detroit Tigers have also hit the Over in runs in three straight. Both of these bullpens also have ERAs over four, so once the starters have departed, there’s lots of opportunity for runs. Plus, the Milwaukee Brewers are fourth in runs scored, and Detroit is 15th.

Suarez's groundball rate of 46% plays well against the various weak spots in the Yankees' lineups, which likely means we don’t see many big innings. Ryan McMahon, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Caballero all have started this season with around a 50% groundball rate, which is particularly problematic in this spot. On the other side, the Red Sox's weak contact against lefties should show up here. 

The Mets' offense showed vague signs of life last night when Francisco Lindor hit a three-run homer. Minnesota eventually pushed through runs as well, and even in a game where both starting pitchers were excellent, the total of 7.5 proved too low. I expect a similar outcome tonight. The Twins are scoring 5.09 runs per game, and they’ll get into the New York bullpen, as Holmes is averaging only 5.8 innings per start.

Taijuan Walker has allowed 4+ runs in three of his four appearances and that is no coincidence. 

He ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in whiff rate, xERA, and xBA. He can’t miss bats and is allowing a ton of quality contact.

The Phillies have gotten 4.2 innings or less from their starter in three straight games and used five relievers yesterday, leaving their bullpen vulnerable behind him.

Matthew Boyd has allowed a sky-high 17.3% barrel rate early on and last pitched April 1st, which is less than ideal when taking on a Phillies team with real power. 

Don’t let the sub-4.00 ERA from Tomoyuki Sugano fool you. He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers to start the year, carrying a 7.71 xERA vs. a 3.92 ERA. He’s getting hit hard, running a low BABIP, and stranding 88% of runners — clear regression signals. The San Diego Padres, sitting at 16-7 SU, are well-positioned to stack runs and win by multiple runs. A late comeback is unlikely with a fully available bullpen, including Mason Miller, who was rested yesterday. The fair price on the moneyline sits around -195 versus a -165 market, and the run line breakeven is closer to -130, making +100 strong value. The Rockies were just shut out last night, and I'm hoping that struggle continues into today.

Shohei Ohtani looks dominant early, opening the season with a 0.50 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. That WHIP aligns strongly with a Giants lineup that’s ranked 27th in on-base % over the last two weeks. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been obliterated in two of his last three starts and draws a Dodgers offense that excels vs right-handed pitching. Los Angeles is also 5-1 after losses this season. Expect a motivated version of the team tonight.