MLB Picks

Dillon Dingler is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. In Major League Baseball, Comerica Park's CF fences are the 2nd-deepest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Dustin May will have the handedness advantage over Dillon Dingler in today's matchup.. This season, there has been a decline in Dillon Dingler's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.56 ft/sec last year to 24.67 ft/sec currently.

Zach McKinstry is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.. When starting against a right-handed pitcher since the start of last season, Zach McKinstry has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.. In Major League Baseball, Comerica Park's CF fences are the 2nd-deepest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Ranked in the 5th percentile, Zach McKinstry's average exit velocity of 85.9 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

The Brewers lead the majors in OPS (.825) and runs per game (7.5). Meanwhile, the Royals are loaded at the  top of their lineup with Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinny Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. They are 10th in the majors in barrel rate and seventh in exit velocity and look poised to break out. The starters for both teams have potential but are also question marks. Brewers sophomore Chad gives up too much hard contact and Royals righty Luinder Avila is making his first MLB start after throwing 14 innings out of the bullpen last year. With the fences moved in at Kauffman Stadium and wind blowing towards the outfield at 13 mph, expect early runs. 

Salvador Perez's BABIP skill is projected in the 11th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-coldest temperature of the day at 51°.. Chad Patrick will hold the platoon advantage against Salvador Perez in today's matchup.. Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's deepest LF fences in today's game.. Typically, bats like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chad Patrick.

Vladdy doesn’t have an extra-base hit yet this season, but a matchup against a hard-throwing lefty could be the key to turning things around. Guerrero had a .519 slug-rate against LHP last season.

Grant Taylor has been named the opener for Chicago, but then lefty Anthony Kay is expected to get the ball afterward for some bulk innings. Ernie Clement crushes lefties. He led the Jays with a .900 OPS against left-handed pitching last season.

 

Hernandez has yet to go deep this season, but he's hitting .320, and he just went 3-for-4 on Friday with a double. Hernandez is 4-for-13 lifetime off Jake Irvin with two long balls. 

Abrams is hitting .269 with two home runs already while driving in 10. Abrams has gone deep in back-to-back contests, and despite the loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, he was 2-for-5 with a long ball.  Abrams is 2-for-3 off Tyler Glasnow with a bomb. 

What a start Jordan Alvarez has had to 2026, already hitting three bombs. The Houston slugger leads MLB with a .596 xwOBA, and his wOBA is second only to Sal Stewart.

His adjusted exit velo of 99.5 sits third in the bigs in the early season, and he’s cut down on his whiff rate against fastballs and breaking balls from last season.

Saturday gives him a matchup with favorable conditions, against a pitcher in Luis Morales who gave up three dingers in his opening start vs. Toronto. And he did so in less than five frames.

That’s a carryover from 2025, where Morales allowed a barrel rate of 10.9% and posted a 4.54 xFIP. He also coughed up 1.48 HR/9IP.

Alvarez has posted a wRC+ of 272 this season, third-best in the majors, while driving in a run in five of his first eight games. Add in an ISO of .480, and he’s primed to get into a pitch or two and bring in a run—doing so via a home run at +255 is worth a look too. 

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 12%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.9-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Tatsuya Imai throws from, Shea Langeliers has a tough challenge in today's matchup.. In today's game, Shea Langeliers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.4% rate (88th percentile).. Shea Langeliers has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .373 mark is a fair amount higher than his .348 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 13th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Vasquez looked quite good in his opening start against the Tigers, allowing just two hits and three walks in 6 IP while striking out eight hitters. 

He showed a noticeable uptick in his fastball, sinker, and slider velocity over last season, something that was picked up on in spring training. That’s in addition to adding a good amount of spin to his cutter.

The wind in Boston is going to be blowing in from RF between 18-36 mph much of the game, which should limit big innings and allow him to go deeper into his start. 

Vasquez doesn’t need to recreate his first start. He just needs to get four Ks vs. a lineup striking out in 29.3% of plate appearances so far in 2026. That’s a great deal, even with the juice. 

When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Miguel Andujar has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 25% of the time.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 46°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 18.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among all the teams playing today.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 54°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Hitting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Aaron Judge faces a tough challenge today.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 54°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Giancarlo Stanton will have a tough challenge today.

De La Cruz is hitting only .214 so far, but his power has been on full display through the first week. The Cincinnati Reds star has three home runs, and he’s gone deep in two of his last three contests. He's 2-for-2 lifetime off Kumar Rocker with a homer. 

In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 6° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Evan Carter will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Evan Carter has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 70% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 14th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Matt Wallner will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

Byron Buxton projects as the 11th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Byron Buxton is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Byron Buxton will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today's matchup.

Both of these teams have struggled at the plate this season. That said, the Cubs have a dangerous lineup on paper and their MLB-best hard-hit rate suggests positive regression. But the main reason to like the YRFI bet is because both starters have been awful. The Guardians are giving the pill to Slade Cecconi who had an xERA of 4.99 last year while sitting near the bottom of the majors in hard-hit rate. The Cubs respond with Shota Imanaga who posted a 4.07 xERA in 2025. Both hurlers also got rocked in their first start this year.

Angel Martinez's BABIP skill is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Martinez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Over the last 7 days, Angel Martinez has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power).. Angel Martinez has shown some bad exit velocity statistics lately, averaging just 82.1-mph on his flyballs over the past 7 days.

Jordan Lawler’s broken wrist robs Arizona of one of the few hitters actually producing in 2026. The Diamondbacks failed to score Friday night, managing only two hits and leaving them with three runs in three games.

The Braves have scored 43 runs, but 17 of those came on Thursday night. They rank in the bottom half so far in exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Ronald Acuna Jr’s .223 wOBAcon  and .216 xBA are limiting Atlanta’s opportunities to score runs, and the Braves needed a pair of ninth-inning solo blasts to win last night. 

This total feels just a bit too high.

 

Mike Soroka’s opening start looks great at face value: 5 IP, 10 Ks, and only four hits and a walk surrendered without allowing a run.

Look deeper and you see a lot of red flags. The Tigers had a 33% barrel rate with an xwOBA of .354 and an xSLG of .534 in those five innings.

The Braves have the second-best barrel rate in MLB at 11.6%, and their .x357 xwOBA sits only behind the Dodgers this season.

Arizona’s xwOBAcon is the third-lowest in the majors, and Bryce Elder’s sinker/slider combo should enduce plenty of ground-ball outs.

 

It wasn’t a great season debut for Jesus Luzardo. The lefty got rocked in his first start, allowing a barrel rate of 11.8% as he surrendered six earned on six hits to the Rangers, including two balls that left the yard.

Yet he still struck out seven hitters with an arsenal that ranked him the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025. He also was a bit unlucky, given his xERA of 2.86 and xFIP of 2.82 on the day.

That’s why I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado. I was fully expecting it to be sitting at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.

Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage on Saturday but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Tyler Freeman will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

The Giants are second-last in the majors in OPS (.554) while ranking last in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Mets new-look lineup plated 10 runs last night but had mustered just three runs over their previous three games. Mets starter Clay Holmes tends to look sharp in the early innings before unravelling mid-game. He had a 2.47 ERA with an OBA of .222 through the first two innings last year. San Fran responds with Landen Roupp who could have a breakout season if he can cut down his walks. He looked sharp in his season debut, allowing just two hits across six innings of shutout ball.

San Francisco has been the worst team in the league against RHP (55 wRC+). Holmes transitioned to the rotation in 2025 and made 31 starts and posted a solid 3.53 ERA thanks to a 75th-percentile barrel rate and 94th percentile ground ball rate. 

As for the Mets, star slugger Juan Soto departed Friday’s contest in the first inning with a right calf injury. It’d be surprising if he suits up Saturday, likely leaving them without their best player in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.

New York has cashed the Under in five of its last seven games; here’s predicting another.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.