MLB Picks

It’s been a bumpy stretch for the Yankees, who had slipped from 8-2 to 9-8 before last night’s rally, but this afternoon is nicely set up for the Bronx Bombers to seal a series win.

New York enters as a heavy favorite, partly because Fried is taking the ball. The Yankees ace has a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through four starts this year, and only four hitters in L.A.’s lineup have faced him previously. Plus, it’s tough to trust an Angels squad that was 33-48 on the road last season and is making a late call on today’s starter. 

I’m anticipating a lot of offense in this one with Patrick Corbin and Brandon Sproat on the mound this afternoon. Both starters have an ERA north of 10. Corbin has just one start, but gave up four runs in four innings, meanwhile Sproat’s given up 12 runs in just three starts this season. Additionally, we’ve seen the Over hit in four of the last five Toronto Blue Jays games with them batting .282 with 49 hits over that stretch, while the Milwaukee Brewers rank 6th averaging 5.2 runs per game this season.

The home-run setting is strong on the South Side of Chicago today, with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. The Tampa Bay Rays also get the ninth-inning guarantee and a favorable group of arms to target. Opener Jordan Leasure could go a couple of innings, and two of the six hits he’s allowed have left the yard. He’s expected to hand it off to lefty Anthony Kay, who has posted solid surface numbers, but there are signs of regression. His command has been shaky with eight walks in 14+ innings, and, to get nerdy, his ideal attack angle rate ranks near the bottom of the league. I'm backing Yandy Diaz at +470. He hits at the top of the order and could see five plate appearances. His BlastCon% is the best on the team, and he is red-hot with a hit and an RBI in five straight games.

Sticking with the Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics game, Nick Kurtz projects as the best home run bet on the home side at +410, with a fair price around +330/+340. It’s a strong lefty vs. righty matchup, and Kurtz has already taken Jack Leiter deep in just three plate appearances. The reigning Rookie of the Year hasn’t produced at the surface level, but the underlying power metrics are still there, including the best swing speed on the team and room for growth in his Blast Contact% numbers. Leiter continues to give up loud contact and is coming off a four-walk, two-homer outing vs. the Dodgers. Not many pitchers enjoy working at Sutter Health Park.

Guardians starter Parker Messick will face a tough test Thursday, with the Orioles ranking third in wOBA against southpaws. The 25-year-old lefty has an unsustainable .227 BABIP and 100.0% strand rate, so while his 3.37 xFIP is still an excellent mark through three starts, the hiccups are coming for Messick and the pendulum is set to swing in the opposite direction. Cleveland also ranks 20th in wOBA against righties, and Baltimore starter Shane Baz has flashed the past two years while allowing three runs or fewer in 22 of his past 34 starts.

The Colorado Rockies may be using an opener in Juan Mejia for this game, but the Houston Astros are getting far too much respect in the market because of it. The Rockies are trading as a +166 underdog on Pinnacle, while I make them closer to a +135 underdog in this spot. Ryan Weiss is on the mound for Houston, and he’s struggled significantly against left-handed hitters, allowing a .357 average with a 1.009 OPS this season. That’s a major concern against a Rockies lineup that features several lefties at the top, including Mickey Moniak, Edouard Julien, and TJ Rumfield. If those hitters can work the count, Weiss is likely to leave pitches over the heart of the plate that they can attack—especially considering he ranks in just the 7th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, which is not a good sign for him but a great sign for our bet.

Castillo has held the Padres to a .200 average across 65 at-bats while striking out 23. He’s shut down the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. On the other side, Walker Buehler owns a 4.97 ERA, and Seattle’s lineup is hitting .325 against him across 40 at-bats. Cal Raleigh alone is 5-for-6.