MLB Picks

The drought ends today for Fernando Tatis Jr., who somehow has yet to go deep this year. He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to this point. His xwOBA ranks second on the team despite slugging just .294. He also owns the fastest bat speed on the roster, ranks inside the Top 50 in baseball in that metric, and sits 25th in BlastContact%. Even his attack angle is in a great spot. It’s a real head-scratcher, and it ends today against lefty Kyle Harrison, whom he’s taken deep over nine career at-bats while hitting .444. Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher who might be pitching above expectations this season and profiles as a strong target today for a homerless Tatis, who feels more than due with the underlying metrics backing it up.

The Minnesota Twins are trading around -120 on Thursday, and that’s a number we can hit as I price the Twins closer to -145 favorites against the Miami Marlins. Connor Prielipp is a swing-and-miss left-hander who has shown strikeout stuff throughout his time in the minors, and that has continued through his first four major league starts, where he’s posted a 9.95 K/9. The Marlins have improved offensively, but they still lack the type of power bats that can consistently punish mistakes over the heart of the plate. Instead, Miami often needs to string together multiple hits to generate runs, and that becomes a major problem against a lefty capable of piling up strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Twins should be able to roll out a lineup with only one left-handed bat—Matt Wallner—against left-hander Braxton Garrett, giving Minnesota a favorable platoon setup throughout most of the order.

Houston Astros starter Mike Burrows has found a groove across his past three starts with a 2.50 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a 30.6% hard-hit rate, and Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has screaming statistical correction ahead of his unsustainable .364 BABIP and 59.0% strand rate. Add the potential for both teams to rest regulars in this afternoon series finale, and I’m anticipating both starters to put enough zeros on the scoreboard to keep this total Under the number Thursday.

Ranger Suárez, now facing a familiar Phillies lineup, has been dominant — scoreless in four of his last five starts with two eight-inning outings, backed by elite run values. Meanwhile, Jesús Luzardo has thrived on the road (2-0, 2.04 ERA, 12 K/9), holding opponents well below league average. With Boston struggling offensively at home (74 OPS+), this sets up as a low-scoring matchup.

The Chicago Cubs pace the majors in wOBA against lefties, and the Atlanta Braves lead the way in the metric against righties. Additionally, Atlanta leads the league in runs per game (5.51), with Chicago tied for third most (5.07). Of course, the Cubbies have also played to the Over in 21 of their past 35 games (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI).

It’s tough to go wrong with Bobby "bags" Witt Jr. on the home run card. The guy can do it the conventional way or the Little League way, and +450 is a great price on a tough board against lefty Anthony Kay, whom Witt has already seen this season. He’s also hitting lefties at the best rate of his career in 2026. Witt owns a 191 wRC+ over the last two weeks, along with the seventh-best slugging percentage in baseball. He’s gone deep five times during that stretch, including entering today on a two-game home run streak. He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and continues to climb the AL MVP odds board. I’d play Witt down to +400 in this matchup.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.