MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Jordan Walker has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.

Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. This game is predicted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate today (83%); there is a small yet noteworthy connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

Brandon Lockridge is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. Brandon Lockridge has been pulled from the game early 14% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound since the start of last season.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-coldest temperature of the day at 51°.. Hitting from the same side that Luinder Avila throws from, Brandon Lockridge will have a tough matchup today.. Brandon Lockridge has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's deepest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. The #7 park in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jonathan India will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.5) suggests that Jonathan India has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 10.2 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Munetaka Murakami in the 3rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Hitting from the same side that Mason Fluharty throws from, Munetaka Murakami will have a tough challenge in today's game.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.. Munetaka Murakami has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits recently, striking balls between -4° and 26° just 25% of the time in the past two weeks.

Hitting from the same side that Grant Taylor throws from, Kazuma Okamoto encounters a tough challenge today.. Kazuma Okamoto will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.

Hernandez has yet to go deep this season, but he's hitting .320, and he just went 3-for-4 on Friday with a double. Hernandez is 4-for-13 lifetime off Jake Irvin with two long balls. 

Abrams is hitting .269 with two home runs already while driving in 10. Abrams has gone deep in back-to-back contests, and despite the loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, he was 2-for-5 with a long ball.  Abrams is 2-for-3 off Tyler Glasnow with a bomb. 

What a start Jordan Alvarez has had to 2026, already hitting three bombs. The Houston slugger leads MLB with a .596 xwOBA, and his wOBA is second only to Sal Stewart.

His adjusted exit velo of 99.5 sits third in the bigs in the early season, and he’s cut down on his whiff rate against fastballs and breaking balls from last season.

Saturday gives him a matchup with favorable conditions, against a pitcher in Luis Morales who gave up three dingers in his opening start vs. Toronto. And he did so in less than five frames.

That’s a carryover from 2025, where Morales allowed a barrel rate of 10.9% and posted a 4.54 xFIP. He also coughed up 1.48 HR/9IP.

Alvarez has posted a wRC+ of 272 this season, third-best in the majors, while driving in a run in five of his first eight games. Add in an ISO of .480, and he’s primed to get into a pitch or two and bring in a run—doing so via a home run at +255 is worth a look too. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 12%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.9-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Luis Morales throws from, Christian Walker has a tough challenge in today's game.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Henry Davis will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Henry Davis has been hot of late, compiling a 94.7-mph average exit velocity in the last 7 days.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.297) implies that Henry Davis has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .232 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 13th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Vasquez looked quite good in his opening start against the Tigers, allowing just two hits and three walks in 6 IP while striking out eight hitters. 

He showed a noticeable uptick in his fastball, sinker, and slider velocity over last season, something that was picked up on in spring training. That’s in addition to adding a good amount of spin to his cutter.

The wind in Boston is going to be blowing in from RF between 18-36 mph much of the game, which should limit big innings and allow him to go deeper into his start. 

Vasquez doesn’t need to recreate his first start. He just needs to get four Ks vs. a lineup striking out in 29.3% of plate appearances so far in 2026. That’s a great deal, even with the juice. 

Since the start of last season, Wilyer Abreu has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 46°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 18.4-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hurlers.. When it comes to his batting average, Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .257 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .230.

Since the start of last season, Ben Rice has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Yankee Stadium profiles as the #27 stadium in MLB for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 54°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.

The #3 park in the league for suppressing BABIP to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this matchup calls for the 4th-lowest temperature on the schedule today at 54°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Giancarlo Stanton will have a tough challenge today.

De La Cruz is hitting only .214 so far, but his power has been on full display through the first week. The Cincinnati Reds star has three home runs, and he’s gone deep in two of his last three contests. He's 2-for-2 lifetime off Kumar Rocker with a homer. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jake Burger is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Jake Burger will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

Royce Lewis's BABIP talent is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Target Field.. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the slate today at 37°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. In the past week, Royce Lewis's swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 22.2% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 14th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #5 stadium in the game for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 17.3-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Matt Wallner will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

Angel Martinez's BABIP skill is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Martinez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Over the last 7 days, Angel Martinez has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power).. Angel Martinez has shown some bad exit velocity statistics lately, averaging just 82.1-mph on his flyballs over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rhys Hoskins in the 4th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Extreme groundball bats like Rhys Hoskins are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.. Rhys Hoskins's speed has dropped off this year. His 24.76 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.23 ft/sec now.. In terms of his batting average, Rhys Hoskins has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .239 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .210.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.. Tim Tawa will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.221) suggests that Tim Tawa has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .202 actual batting average.

When estimating his home run skill, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the game for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up 15° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

It wasn’t a great season debut for Jesus Luzardo. The lefty got rocked in his first start, allowing a barrel rate of 11.8% as he surrendered six earned on six hits to the Rangers, including two balls that left the yard.

Yet he still struck out seven hitters with an arsenal that ranked him the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025. He also was a bit unlucky, given his xERA of 2.86 and xFIP of 2.82 on the day.

That’s why I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado. I was fully expecting it to be sitting at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.

Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage on Saturday but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Tyler Freeman will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which often leads to less offense.. Hitting from the same side that Landen Roupp throws from, Mark Vientos will have a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Mark Vientos in today's game.. Mark Vientos grades out in the 18th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.9% rate since the start of last season).. The standard deviation of Mark Vientos's launch angle since the start of last season (30.3°) is in the 9th percentile. A high mark like this tends to lead to a lower rate of base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Oracle Park grades out as the #4 field in the game for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oracle Park has the shallowest RF fences in the majors.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.7-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 5th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Angel Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

When estimating his home run talent, Logan O'Hoppe ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Logan O'Hoppe has strong power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Emerson Hancock doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for O'Hoppe.