Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 27, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
TB
@
CLE
Mon, Apr 27 • 6:10 PM ET
CLE (-136)
Cleveland is in a strong spot to respond tonight with Parker Messick on the mound. He’s been dominant early, posting a 1.76 ERA across five starts, all of which have resulted in Guardians wins, and he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been excellent with a 1.86 ERA over the past week. Meanwhile, Steven Matz has struggled to find consistency and now faces a Cleveland lineup hitting lefties well while limiting strikeouts. The Guardians lost yesterday, but are 10-2 this season in games following a loss.
o7.5 (-105)
Matz is coming off an awful start while walking nearly four and serving up 1.85 bombs per nine through 21 ⅓ frames. Once he and Messick exit, two below-average bullpens take over. The combination of wind, a vulnerable lefty starter, and shaky relief arms makes the game total a number begging to be attacked.
STL
@
PIT
Mon, Apr 27 • 6:40 PM ET
PIT (-125)
BOS
@
TOR
Mon, Apr 27 • 7:07 PM ET
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Total Home Runs (+790)
Ernie Clement o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
LAA
@
CHW
Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
SEA
@
MIN
Mon, Apr 27 • 7:40 PM ET
Victor Caratini o0.5 Total Home Runs (+920)
Let’s take a bigger swing with the projected cleanup hitter for the Minnesota Twins in a strong matchup. The Covers projections like the Over in this game, and suggest the Minnesota offense is being undervalued. Victor Caratini is a switch-hitter who is better from the left side, and the Seattle Mariners bullpen may be without both of its left-handed arms. He’s also very familiar with Luis Castillo, with 23 career at-bats against him. Castillo may be on the back end of his prime. He’s been inefficient this year, allowing 31 hits in just 23 innings, and projects as a pitcher who could give up 25–30 home runs over the full season. The fair price for a Caratini home run sits around +770, and double-digit winds blowing out only add to the appeal. Kody Clemens (+520) and Josh Bell (+590) also project as +EV in this game.
u8.5 (+100)
The Mariners are just 22nd in runs scored, and the Under in cashed in two of their three games against the Cardinals over the weekend. The Twins also scored just five runs against the Rays across three games, with the Under hitting in all of those contests as well.
NYY
@
TEX
Mon, Apr 27 • 8:05 PM ET
u8.0 (-105)
This matchup likely leans toward a 4-2 or 3-1 Yankees victory rather than a blowout. While I think the Yankees get Leiter, he should also be able to collect a high amount of outs against the bottom of the New York lineup that has so much swing-and-miss.
NYY (-156)
CHC
@
SD
Mon, Apr 27 • 9:40 PM ET
u8.5 (-133)
Padres starter Randy Vasquez's fastball velocity and movement are up to generate more swinging strikes, and it's enabled him to allow just four runs across 22 2/3 innings during his first two trips through the order over his five starts. So, with San Diego ranking 28th in wOBA against lefties, I'm confident in Chicago southpaw Matthew Boyd turning in a strong outing, too. He's a start removed from returning from his biceps injury and sports a 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.74 xERA since joining the club in 2025, after all.
CHC (-103)
The Cubs send a superior lineup to the dish with a seventh-ranked wOBA against righties, while the Padres offense ranks 28th in wOBA against lefties. I’m confident in Cubbies southpaw Matt Boyd now that he's a start removed from returning from his biceps injury, with Boyd posting a rock-solid 3.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 3.74 xERA since joining the club in 2025. Additionally, Friars righty Randy Vasquez‘s 1.88 ERA is miles below his 4.31 xERA, so I’m expecting hiccups navigating a Chicago lineup that’s specialized in timely hitting during an active 13-5 heater.
MIA
@
LAD
Mon, Apr 27 • 10:10 PM ET
Yoshinobu Yamamoto o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
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