The Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers will play the second game of a three-game set on Saturday afternoon as two dynamic pitchers in Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola face off.
My Rangers vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks are targeting the former to get tons of whiffs on Saturday, March 28.
Rangers vs Phillies predictions
Rangers vs Phillies best bet: Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)
Jacob deGrom averaged just over seven strikeouts last season, with a 9.5 K-rate per nine innings. There’s a strong precedent for him to quiet the Philadelphia Phillies star bats, too.
Kyle Schwarber is 1-for-17 with eight Ks, and Bryce Harper has 17 punchouts in 44 ABs.
Even after the departure of Nick Castellanos, this is a Phillies team that continues to project tons of swing-and-miss. They finished last season with the third-highest chase rate in the league, and deGrom comes off a year where his chase rate finished in the Top 10% of the league.
COVERS INTEL: Aaron Nola easily posted the worst ERA of his career last season with a 6.01, but he had an expected ERA of 4.13. He should see some positive regression in 2026.
Rangers vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
I've paired my best bet with the Under.
I’ve spoken a great deal about why deGrom should have success in this matchup, and I’m generally bullish in Aaron Nola in 2026, too. He's had strong historical success against this Texas Rangers lineup, limiting them to a combined .733 OPS over 122 at-bats.
He's struck out Brandon Nimmo 23 times in 60 at-bats.
Rangers vs Phillies SGP
- Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 strikeouts
- Under 7.5
Rangers vs Phillies home run pick: Wyatt Langford (+470)
I like the value of this number. Wyatt Langford has never faced Nola, but there’s reason to suggest he has some success.
He doesn’t have an overly high chase rate, which Nola is reliant on. In addition to that, he ranks among the best Rangers in hard-hit rate against the fastball and knuckle curveball, the two pitches the righty throws the most.
- Best bets: 0-1, -1.2 units
- SGPs: 0-1, -1 units
- HR picks: 0-1, -1 units
Rangers vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Texas +105 | Philadelphia -125
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Rangers vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the F5 moneyline in 45 of their last 74 games at home (+20.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Phillies.
How to watch Rangers vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, March 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | RSN, NBCSP+ |
| Rangers starting pitcher | Jacob deGrom (2025: 12-8, 2.97 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (2025: 5-10, 6.15 ERA) |
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Rangers vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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